Tories need to get election over with to spare them (and us) any more pain

09 March 2024 , 18:52

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Jeremy Hunt with Rishi Sunak (Image: Getty Images)

In the end, there was no rabbit. There wasn’t even a hat. I’ve spoken to people who have left budgets angry, some fired-up, some surprised by a masterstroke or two. I’ve never heard a reaction quite like the one this week.

“There was something in it for everyone,” said one backbencher. “Trouble is, something for everyone to get angry about.” Quite right. No real help for anyone at all, from pensioners to first-time buyers.

In the couple of hours following Mr Hunt’s speech, my email was flooded. The psychologists: “A missed opportunity”; the firefighters: “Final insult”; the farmers: “Doesn’t go far enough.” At least they froze booze – although that, according to various physicians I have consulted over the years, is not the answer to everything.

The big debate around here at the moment is whether this budget means we are looking at an early, early election or otherwise. There is some money moving on May at the moment but it feels like wishful thinking – particularly when you look at the polls.

Ipsos has the Conservatives on a record low of 20% and Labour at 47%. There’s a lot of downward pressure on Mr Sunak’s personal ratings as well. Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said: “The historical comparisons continue to look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The Ipsos Political Monitor series started in the late 70s and has never recorded a Conservative vote share this low. And the job satisfaction trends for the Prime Minister and his Government since he took office are also heading downwards.”

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The calculation, as always, is can those polls narrow enough over the next few months? Mr Sunak hoped the economy would tick up, the cost-of-living crisis ease and that would be reflected in the polling. There is absolutely no sign of that at all. Nothing looks like it could get Mr Sunak out of trouble.

Maybe go in May and get it over with? If you’re going to go, go fast. The list of Tories not standing is swelling by the day. Paul Scully at the start of the week, Theresa May at the end. Lock up your wheatfields.

American high schools have the ‘mercy rule’ for team sports. If one side is battering the other and they are clearly going to win, everyone can get together and decide to shorten the contest. It avoids cruel, one-sided affairs and spares the losers a lot of pain and humiliation. The mercy rule could well be applied to politics at this moment in time. End this charade and we can all get on with the rest of our lives.

Keir Mudie