Maps show Hurricane Hilary storm path as heavy rain and flash flooding forecast

17 August 2023 , 21:24

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Hurricane Hilary forming off the coast of Mexico (Image: AP)

Hurricane Hilary is bearing down on the West Coast of the US with storm warnings already issued in parts of Mexico, where it is expected to make landfall on Sunday.

It was upgraded from the status of tropical storm to hurricane on Thursday morning as it continues to "intensify rapidly" with wind speeds reaching a terrifying 105 mph (165 kph), forecasters said.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the hurricane is expected to hit the Baja California peninsula in Mexico within the next 72 hours and hit the US/ Californian border in three to four days.

Despite predictions, the latest from the government hurricane department warns: "Although there is fairly high confidence in the track prediction, Hilary's oblique angle of approach to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula makes it nearly impossible to know at this point if the centre will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States."

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Maps show Hurricane Hilary storm path as heavy rain and flash flooding forecast

Map shows the expected trajectory of the hurricane (NOAA)

Hilary was located about 500 miles (805 kilometres) south-southeast of Los Cabos, on the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. While it was still far from land, the hurricane was moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph) and was expected to take a more northward turn, toward the US border.

The hurricane is expected to continue to intensify rapidly over the next few days before passing over cooler waters and hitting land which will weaken it.

Heavy rainfall is expected over portions of Baja California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday which could cause flash flooding and even landslides.

Heat map showing the wind speeds (NOAA)

Into Monday flooding could hit the Southwestern US and residents have been warned to brace for "significant impacts."

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are now in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and additional watches or warnings will likely be required. Coastal areas are also expected to be hit by large swells.

“Rainfall impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak this weekend into Monday,” the hurricane centre wrote in a report. “Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is possible with the potential for significant impacts.”

A flooded street due to heavy rains in the resort of Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, on August 16 (David Guzman/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

The area affected by heavy rainfall may include the stretch between San Diego, California and Yuma, Arizona. A wider area between Bakersfield, California and Tucson, Arizona could also see rain.

The outlook for excessive rainfall in Southern California stretches from Sunday to Tuesday, according to the Los Angeles office.

The odds are against Hilary making landfall in California as a tropical storm but there is a high chance of major rain- and flood-related impacts, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in an online briefing Wednesday.

The main body of the hurricane is set to hit Baja California at around 6am on Sunday. It will then track northwards reaching California at 6am Monday. By the time it crosses into the US it may have weakened to a tropical storm and will continue northwards dispersing over Northern California, Nevada and Oregon by Tuesday morning.