One in five Brits will be living with a 'major illness' in less than two decades
One in five people will be living with a “major illness” in less than two decades according to a landmark study of health in England.
A four-year project by Liverpool University and the Health Foundation has concluded 9.1 million people are projected to be living with major illness by 2040 - up 2.5 million people on 2019.
Worryingly it found that improvements in some of the main causes of poor health, such as fewer people smoking and lower cholesterol rates, will be offset by the impact of obesity.
The NHS will face the consequences as many people who have been obese for long periods of their lives reach old age.
Experts are calling for increased GP funding and much greater support to manage key conditions chronic pain, diabetes, anxiety and depression, at home.
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The improvements made with fewer people smoking have been offset by the impact of obesity (Getty Images)Anita Charlesworth, Director of the REAL Centre, said: “Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.
“But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades’ time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and has significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances.”
She added: “Over the last 30 years levels of obesity in the adult population has broadly doubled. So for those aged 70-plus, what determines a lot of their health now and into their old age is that cumulative exposure, their weight over the previous decades.
“So [the consequences of] that is baked in.”
People are forecast to live longer but this will on average be with major illness. This period is expected to increase from 11.2 years in 2019 to 12.6 years in 2040.
The analysis found 80% of the projected increase in major illness will be in those aged over 70, with the remaining 20% - or 500,000 people - being part of the working-age population or 20 to 69. It found 80% of the increase is due to the ageing population.
On average people will be living with at least one major illness for 12 years. The average 70 year old will be living with three such conditions and the average 85 year old will have five conditions.
Some 1.5 million more people will be living with chronic pain and diabetes. Major illness was defined using a recognised scoring system of 20 conditions rated according to how likely they are to require NHS care.
Those with major illness could have one severe condition such as dementia, or a combination or less severe conditions like constipation and atrial fibrillation.
Ms Charlesworth added: “The challenge of an ageing population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS.
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“Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well prepared we are to meet the challenge is what will set us apart. Lots of these illnesses are ones where people can live well if they have access to good care and good services.”
The Real Centre partnership between Liverpool University and the Health Foundation is focusing on levels of ill health in the adult population to advise policy makers.
The analysis finds that 19 of the 20 health conditions studied are projected to increase in prevalence, including a rise of more than 30% in those living with cancer, diabetes and kidney disease.
Overall, the number of people living with major disease is set to increase from almost one in six of the adult population in 2019, to nearly one in five by 2040.
Miriam Deakin, policy director, at NHS Providers, which represents hospital leaders, said: “Prevention is better than cure.
“More support and money for public health services are vital to stave off poor health and ease pressure on the NHS.
“Years of cuts to funding for public health and preventative services have severely dented local councils’ efforts to improve the health and wellbeing of their communities and have put an overstretched NHS under more strain.”
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