From prison to power play: Bolsonaro family plots dramatic political comeback

07 April 2026 , 20:54

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By the end of last year, the Bolsonaro family appeared politically finished.

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s far-right former president, was behind bars with a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, while his son Eduardo — long seen as his political heir — had been expelled from Congress and was living in self-imposed exile in the United States, the Financial Times reports.

Yet the family is now staging a swift political comeback. With just six months until Brazil’s presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro, the more moderate eldest son, has emerged as a strong and competitive contender.

Polls have shown him tied with or beating President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with voters unhappy about the economy and worried about crime.

Bolsonaro, 44, a senator for Rio de Janeiro, is seeking to draw a stark personal contrast with Lula, who at 80 is running for his fourth term.

“Brazil urgently needs change, a government that is younger, modern and with more energy,” he told the FT. “The problem is not Lula’s age, it is that his ideas are out of date.”

While other candidates could yet catch fire, analysts say the election is shaping up to be another deeply polarised encounter between two politicians who have loyal supporters but face high degrees of rejection.

Flávio Bolsonaro gestures while speaking during an interview, seated in front of a framed painting at the Liberal Party headquarters. qhxidiqxkiqrtinv

To appeal to the centre ground, Bolsonaro is emphasising his reputation as the more moderate member of the family. A lawyer who once owned a chocolate shop, his tone is less abrasive and confrontational than his father’s. As president, Jair Bolsonaro was famously sceptical about Covid-19 vaccines; Flávio Bolsonaro publicly took the jab.

However, the platform is similar to that of his father: a mixture of far-right positions on social issues and crime with centre-right views on the economy and a fervent belief that Bolsonaro senior was unjustly convicted.

Flávio Bolsonaro, who spoke last weekend at the conservative CPAC conference in Dallas, told the FT Lula was too hostile to the US and too favourable to China.

“President Lula is wrong to close the door to the United States and simply open Brazil up as if it were a Chinese colony,” he said.

Flávio Bolsonaro visited El Salvador last year to observe President Nayib Bukele’s controversial policy of mass incarceration. He wants something similar in Brazil, with 16-year-olds charged as adults and the age limit lowered to 14 for crimes such as murder and rape.

“Brazilian working people don’t want to be worried any more about someone putting a revolver to their head at a traffic light,” he said.

Bolsonaro’s economic plan has few specifics but he wants lower taxes and some privatisations, including of the postal service. Spending cuts would reduce interest rates, he says, though many in the business community are unconvinced of his willingness to take tough budget decisions.

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro stands at a podium with a CPAC logo, speaking on stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference.

Jair Bolsonaro is escorted by police officers, partially visible behind window blinds, as he arrives to begin house arrest.

But political analysts expect Lula’s team to begin attacking Bolsonaro on his record. This includes a scandal over supposedly irregular payments from his office when he was a legislator in Rio, in a case that was thrown out by the courts. Bolsonaro has also faced scrutiny over alleged connections with individuals linked to militias, founded by former police, that run extortion rackets in the city. He has always denied the claims.

Lula’s supporters say Bolsonaro does not represent a moderate form of Bolsonarismo, but is instead a member of an extreme rightwing movement that was in favour of a coup. “He is a wolf trying to disguise himself to trick the chickens,” said Wellington Dias, minister of social development who will be one of the co-ordinators of Lula’s campaign.

Although Bolsonaro has been in politics for more than 20 years, there are also questions over whether he can stand the hothouse of a presidential election. His 2016 campaign for mayor of Rio was a disaster: in one debate he nearly fainted and had to withdraw. He eventually came fourth.

“When he starts to take these hits from Lula, then we will find out if he is a real candidate or not,” said Thiago Vidal, a political consultant at Prospectiva in Brasília.

Bolsonaro will also need to deal with his father’s shadow. While he wants to retain the former president’s base, other voters might seek evidence he can be his own man. In Brasília, Bolsonaro receives visitors in the office his father once used but refuses to sit in the chair behind the desk.

“I will never come close to him,” he said. “It would be like comparing the son of Pelé to Pelé.”