Voters hope to end the lack of reliable running water and frequent power outages, as well as the dire economic conditions where many live on less than US$2 a day in a country where the cost of basic necessities for a family of four is estimated to be $372.
They also aim to end a corrupt regime that, according to conservative estimates, has looted around $400 billion. Venezuela is ranked as the second most corrupt country in the world in 2023, only behind Somalia and on par with Syria and South Sudan, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
Maduro, whom the OCCRP declared the most corrupt person in the world in 2016, is seen as responsible for a regime so rife with mismanagement that citizens of the once leading Latin American nation are now literally starving and begging for medicines.
Murder and crime in Venezuela has skyrocketed and political oppression has intensified. The president and his inner circle, including wife Cilia Flores, have allegedly extracted millions from state coffers to cover the patronage that keeps him in power.
And many Venezuelans seem to have had enough.
Maduro’s main opponent is Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old former Venezuelan ambassador to Argentina and Algeria who was relatively unknown until the opposition chose him as their candidate in March.
His campaign owes much of its momentum to Maria Corina Machado, a former lawmaker and popular opposition leader, who was in January barred by the Supreme Court from running after she obtained the support of 92% of voters in the primary elections in October last year. The Court cited financial irregularities.
That’s when she endorsed González and continued to campaign for him, helping to mobilize a massive social and political movement that, according to most Venezuelan pollsters, gives the opposition candidate a clear advantage over Maduro.
The campaign is riding on the discontent of millions of Venezuelans who have witnessed the economic debacle of the country under Maduro. What resonates the most with the voters is the prospect of a recovery that would return of some eight million Venezuelans who fled the humanitarian and economic crisis. Many even believe that another Maduro victory would initiate another migratory wave.
“Maria, I don’t want to leave (the country)!” young people have begged Machado at rallies. “I want my children to come back,” older people demanded.
For Sunday’s election, 21 million people are registered to vote. However, of the nearly eight million Venezuelans living abroad, only 61,000 having been processed in the May update of the voting registry.
This is seen as a deliberate attempt by the regime to reduce the number of opposition voters. Additionally, on the top of 301 political prisoners, another 102 people connected to Machado’s campaign were detained, according to Foro Penal Venezolano.
Also, the Venezuelan electoral authority withdrew invitations to EU, Brazilian, and Colombian representatives to monitor the election.
Even if González wins, some Venezuelans doubt Maduro will peacefully relinquish power. Maduro himself has hinted at the possibility of violence if he is removed and dismissed calls from Brazil and Chile for the election results to be accepted. He used the words “bloodbath” and “civil war” in case he is defeated.
In 2013, Maduro narrowly won by a margin of 1.18%, with the opposition contesting the results but ultimately failing to secure an audit. In 2018, he won after the main opposition platform called for a boycott. This time, participation has increased significantly, with many Venezuelans abroad buying tickets to fly home and vote.
“What is at stake in this election is the possibility of rescuing democracy in Venezuela and the reinstitutionalization of the country,” Carmen Beatriz Fernández, political communication expert and analyst, told OCCRP. She believes that democracy has been “kidnapped” decades ago.
She emphasized that the election outcome will also have significant international implications, particularly regarding the regional geopolitical balance and the migratory crisis, with over 6.5 million Venezuelans having found refuge in Latin America and the Caribbean according to UNHCR.
