Grand National supercomputer predicts 2024 result with Aintree favourite tipped for historic win
The Grand National will see 34 horses compete in the longest jump race held in the UK on Saturday afternoon - and thousands of punters want to know who will win.
Corach Rambler has been tipped to repeat the feats of Red Rum and Tiger Roll by winning back-to-back Grand Nationals this weekend.
Lucinda Russell’s horse claimed victory last year at Aintree Racecourse and will be ridden once again by Derek Fox on Saturday afternoon. Corach Rambler will be one of 34 horses lining up for the famous race after the numbers were dropped from 40 for safety reasons.
That change shortens the odds for the favourite, but there will still be strong competition in the extremely unpredictable race, which – at four miles, two furlongs and 74 yards – is the longest jump race held in the UK. Fox is looking for a third win in the Grand National, having also ridden One For Arthur to victory in 2017.
Backing a winner is notoriously difficult, but Grosvenor Sport and their supercomputer are here to help. The company’s statisticians have written some clever code, which uses bookmaker odds and Racing Post ratings, and then simulated the race 1,000 times to ensure accuracy and rule out anomalous results.
After going through that process, they have determined that Corach Rambler has a 13 per cent chance of winning, ahead of I Am Maximus at 9.3 per cent and Vanillier at 6.2 per cent. By contrast, 2022 winner Noble Yeats has just a 2.6 per cent chance of victory.
A spokesperson for Grosvenor Sport said: “It is extremely rare for a horse to win back-to-back Grand National titles due to the handicapping system, but the SuperComputer has factored in the conditions for the spectacle.
“Reports suggest the track at Aintree will be battered once again by heavy rain, with the course currently soft, heavy in places and in danger of turning into a real slog. Under the guidance of Lucinda Russell, we expect the Corach Rambler to deliver once again.”
Russell has prayed to the weather Gods, telling William Hill : “We’re really pleased with Corach Rambler ahead of the Grand National. He’s been absolutely perfect since Cheltenham. My only worry is the weather. We wouldn’t want the ground too soft for him and the drier the ground the better, so we’re anxiously watching the weather!”
Fox told the Racing Post : “My dream growing up was to ride in the Grand National, so to think I’ve won it twice is very special. Whatever happens, I’ll always have two those Nationals, but at the same time I’m still looking forward to riding it again this year.”
At the time of writing, the bookies have priced up the favourites like this: Corach Rambler (5-1), I Am Maximus (7-1), Meetingofthewaters (8-1), Vanillier (9-1), Mr Incredible (12-1), Panda Boy, Kitty’s Light (14-1), Mahler Mission (16-1) and Bar (20-1).
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