Bombshell mega-poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of seats in wipeout
The Conservatives face an electoral wipeout that would see them lose more than three-quarters of their seats, according to a mega-poll.
The bombshell survey of 18,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs, which would be the party’s worst result in history. Seventeen Cabinet ministers would be ousted with casualties including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.
The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. According to the poll, Labour has 42% support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22%.
Voters said they believed health, the economy and immigration were the most important issues facing the country. Nationalising utility companies and building more homes were among most popular potential election policies.
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Over the past three weeks, the pollsters surveyed 18,151 people - which is nine times as many as a typical poll. The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method - that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections - was then used to project what this would mean in individual constituencies.
The results suggest Labour is set to pick up 452 seats. The Tories would lose 285 of the 265 seats they got in 2019, leaving them with just 80. Ministers set to be ousted include Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.
Current Cabinet ministers who are likely to keep their seats - and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest - are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Michael Gove.
According to the poll, the Lib Dems are on course for a comeback that would see them go back up to 53 seats. The SNP are forecast to slump slightly to 40 seats, while the Greens would get two.
The poll predicts an almost total wipeout for the Tories
Labour has maintained a 20 point lead over the ToriesMartin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997. A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes.
“The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close."
A General Election has to take place by next January at the latest, although Mr Sunak is expected to either hold one in May or the Autumn.
Find Out Now interviewed 18,151 adults in Britain online between January 24 and February 12.
Full results - who will win your seat?
Aberafan Maesteg - Labour
Aberdeen North - SNP
Aberdeen South - SNP
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - SNP
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine - SNP
Airdrie and Shotts - SNP
Aldershot - Labour
Aldridge-Brownhills - Conservative
Alloa and Grangemouth - SNP
Altrincham and Sale West - Labour
Alyn and Deeside - Labour
Amber Valley - Labour
Angus and Perthshire Glens - SNP
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - SNP
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - SNP
Arundel and South Downs - Conservative
Ashfield - Ashfield Independents
Ashford - Labour
Ashton under Lyne - Labour
Aylesbury - Labour
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock - SNP
Ayrshire Central - SNP
Ayrshire North and Arran - SNP
Banbury - Labour
Bangor Aberconwy - Labour
Barking - Labour
Barnsley North - Labour
Barnsley South - Labour
Barrow and Furness - Labour
Basildon and Billericay - Conservative
Basildon South and East Thurrock - Conservative
Basingstoke - Labour
Bassetlaw - Labour
Bath - Liberal Democrats
Bathgate and Linlithgow - SNP
Battersea - Labour
Beaconsfield - Conservative
Beckenham and Penge - Labour
Bedford - Labour
Bedfordshire Mid - Labour
Bedfordshire North - Labour
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Labour
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - SNP
Bethnal Green and Stepney - Labour
Beverley and Holderness - Labour
Bexhill and Battle - Conservative
Bexleyheath and Crayford - Labour
Bicester and Woodstock - Labour
Birkenhead - Labour
Birmingham Edgbaston - Labour
Birmingham Erdington - Labour
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Labour
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - Labour
Birmingham Ladywood - Labour
Birmingham Northfield - Labour
Birmingham Perry Barr - Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak - Labour
Birmingham Yardley - Labour
Bishop Auckland - Labour
Blackburn - Labour
Blackley and Middleton South - Labour
Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Labour
Blackpool South - Labour
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney - Labour
Blaydon and Consett - Labour
Blyth and Ashington - Labour
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Conservative
Bolsover - Labour
Bolton North East - Labour
Bolton South and Walkden - Labour
Bolton West - Labour
Bootle - Labour
Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Bournemouth East - Labour
Bournemouth West - Labour
Bracknell - Labour
Bradford East - Labour
Bradford South - Labour
Bradford West - Labour
Braintree - Conservative
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Conservative
Brent East - Labour
Brent West - Labour
Brentford and Isleworth - Labour
Brentwood and Ongar - Conservative
Bridgend - Labour
Bridgwater - Labour
Bridlington and the Wolds - Conservative
Brigg and Immingham - Conservative
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven - Labour
Brighton Pavilion - Green
Bristol Central - Green
Bristol East - Labour
Bristol North East - Labour
Bristol North West - Labour
Bristol South - Labour
Broadland and Fakenham - Labour
Bromley and Biggin Hill - Labour
Bromsgrove - Conservative
Broxbourne - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Buckingham and Bletchley - Labour
Buckinghamshire Mid - Conservative
Burnley - Labour
Burton and Uttoxeter - Labour
Bury North - Labour
Bury South - Labour
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Labour
Caerphilly - Labour
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross - SNP
Calder Valley - Labour
Camborne and Redruth - Labour
Cambridge - Labour
Cambridgeshire North East - Conservative
Cambridgeshire North West - Labour
Cambridgeshire South - Liberal Democrats
Cannock Chase - Labour
Canterbury - Labour
Cardiff East - Labour
Cardiff North - Labour
Cardiff South and Penarth - Labour
Cardiff West - Labour
Carlisle - Labour
Carmarthen - Plaid Cymru
Carshalton and Wallington - Liberal Democrats
Castle Point - Conservative
Ceredigion Preseli - Plaid Cymru
Chatham and Aylesford - Labour
Cheadle - Liberal Democrats
Chelmsford - Labour
Chelsea and Fulham - Labour
Cheltenham - Liberal Democrats
Chesham and Amersham - Liberal Democrats
Cheshire Mid - Labour
Chester North and Neston - Labour
Chester South and Eddisbury - Labour
Chesterfield - Labour
Chichester - Labour
Chingford and Woodford Green - Labour
Chippenham - Liberal Democrats
Chipping Barnet - Labour
Chorley - Labour
Christchurch - Conservative
Cities of London and Westminster - Labour
Clacton - Conservative
Clapham and Brixton Hill - Labour
Clwyd East - Labour
Clwyd North - Labour
Coatbridge and Bellshill - Labour
Colchester - Labour
Colne Valley - Labour
Congleton - Labour
Corby and East Northamptonshire - Labour
Cornwall North - Liberal Democrats
Cornwall South East - Labour
Cotswolds North - Labour
Cotswolds South - Labour
Coventry East - Labour
Coventry North West - Labour
Coventry South - Labour
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Labour
Cramlington and Killingworth - Labour
Crawley - Labour
Crewe and Nantwich - Labour
Croydon East - Labour
Croydon South - Labour
Croydon West - Labour
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - SNP
Dagenham and Rainham - Labour
Darlington - Labour
Dartford - Labour
Daventry - Conservative
Derby North - Labour
Derby South - Labour
Derbyshire Dales - Labour
Derbyshire Mid - Labour
Derbyshire North East - Labour
Derbyshire South - Labour
Devon Central - Labour
Devon North - Liberal Democrats
Devon South - Liberal Democrats
Devon South West - Labour
Dewsbury and Batley - Labour
Didcot and Wantage - Liberal Democrats
Doncaster Central - Labour
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme - Labour
Doncaster North - Labour
Dorking and Horley - Liberal Democrats
Dorset Mid and Poole North - Liberal Democrats
Dorset North - Conservative
Dorset South - Labour
Dorset West - Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal - Labour
Droitwich and Evesham - Conservative
Dudley - Labour
Dulwich and West Norwood - Labour
Dumfries and Galloway - SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - SNP
Dunbartonshire West - SNP
Dundee Central - SNP
Dunfermline and Dollar - SNP
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard - Labour
Durham North - Labour
Durham, City of - Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Plaid Cymru
Ealing Central and Acton - Labour
Ealing North - Labour
Ealing Southall - Labour
Earley and Woodley - Labour
Easington - Labour
East Grinstead and Uckfield - Conservative
East Ham - Labour
East Kilbride and Strathaven - SNP
Eastbourne - Liberal Democrats
Eastleigh - Liberal Democrats
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - SNP
Edinburgh North and Leith - SNP
Edinburgh South - Labour
Edinburgh South West - SNP
Edinburgh West - Liberal Democrats
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Labour
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough - Labour
Eltham and Chislehurst - Labour
Ely and East Cambridgeshire - Liberal Democrats
Enfield North - Labour
Epping Forest - Conservative
Epsom and Ewell - Conservative
Erewash - Labour
Erith and Thamesmead - Labour
Esher and Walton - Liberal Democrats
Essex North West - Conservative
Exeter - Labour
Exmouth and Exeter East - Conservative
Falkirk - SNP
Fareham and Waterlooville - Labour
Farnham and Bordon - Conservative
Faversham and Kent Mid - Conservative
Feltham and Heston - Labour
Fife North East - Liberal Democrats
Filton and Bradley Stoke - Labour
Finchley and Golders Green - Labour
Folkestone and Hythe - Labour
Forest of Dean - Labour
Frome and East Somerset - Labour
Fylde - Conservative
Gainsborough - Conservative
Gateshead Central and Whickham - Labour
Gedling - Labour
Gillingham and Rainham - Labour
Glasgow East - Labour
Glasgow North - Labour
Glasgow North East - Labour
Glasgow South - SNP
Glasgow South West - Labour
Glasgow West - SNP
Glastonbury and Somerton - Liberal Democrats
Glenrothes and Mid Fife - SNP
Gloucester - Labour
Godalming and Ash - Liberal Democrats
Goole and Pocklington - Conservative
Gordon and Buchan - SNP
Gorton and Denton - Labour
Gosport - Conservative
Gower - Labour
Grantham and Bourne - Conservative
Gravesham - Labour
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Labour
Great Yarmouth - Labour
Greenwich and Woolwich - Labour
Guildford - Liberal Democrats
Hackney North and Stoke Newington - Labour
Hackney South and Shoreditch - Labour
Halesowen - Labour
Halifax - Labour
Hamble Valley - Conservative
Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Labour
Hammersmith and Chiswick - Labour
Hampshire East - Conservative
Hampshire North East - Conservative
Hampshire North West - Labour
Hampstead and Highgate - Labour
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - Labour
Harlow - Labour
Harpenden and Berkhamsted - Liberal Democrats
Harrogate and Knaresborough - Liberal Democrats
Harrow East - Labour
Harrow West - Labour
Hartlepool - Labour
Harwich and North Essex - Labour
Hastings and Rye - Labour
Havant - Conservative
Hayes and Harlington - Labour
Hazel Grove - Liberal Democrats
Hemel Hempstead - Labour
Hendon - Labour
Henley and Thame - Conservative
Hereford and South Herefordshire - Labour
Herefordshire North - Conservative
Herne Bay and Sandwich - Conservative
Hertford and Stortford - Labour
Hertfordshire North East - Labour
Hertfordshire South West - Labour
Hertsmere - Conservative
Hexham - Labour
Heywood and Middleton North - Labour
High Peak - Labour
Hinckley and Bosworth - Conservative
Hitchin - Labour
Holborn and St Pancras - Labour
Honiton and Sidmouth - Liberal Democrats
Hornchurch and Upminster - Conservative
Hornsey and Friern Barnet - Labour
Horsham - Labour
Houghton and Sunderland South - Labour
Hove and Portslade - Labour
Huddersfield - Labour
Hull East - Labour
Huntingdon - Labour
Hyndburn - Labour
Ilford North - Labour
Ilford South - Labour
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - SNP
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - SNP
Ipswich - Labour
Isle of Wight East - Labour
Isle of Wight West - Labour
Islington North - Labour
Islington South and Finsbury - Labour
Jarrow and Gateshead East - Labour
Keighley and Ilkley - Labour
Kenilworth and Southam - Labour
Kensington and Bayswater - Labour
Kettering - Labour
Kilmarnock and Loudoun - SNP
Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Labour
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - Labour
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire - Conservative
Knowsley - Labour
Lancashire West - Labour
Lancaster and Wyre - Labour
Leeds Central and Headingley - Labour
Leeds East - Labour
Leeds North East - Labour
Leeds North West - Labour
Leeds South - Labour
Leeds South West and Morley - Labour
Leeds West and Pudsey - Labour
Leicester East - Labour
Leicester South - Labour
Leicester West - Labour
Leicestershire Mid - Labour
Leicestershire North West - Labour
Leicestershire South - Conservative
Leigh and Atherton - Labour
Lewes - Liberal Democrats
Lewisham East - Labour
Lewisham North - Labour
Lewisham West and East Dulwich - Labour
Leyton and Wanstead - Labour
Lichfield - Conservative
Lincoln - Labour
Liverpool Garston - Labour
Liverpool Riverside - Labour
Liverpool Walton - Labour
Liverpool Wavertree - Labour
Liverpool West Derby - Labour
Livingston - SNP
Llanelli - Labour
Lothian East - Labour
Loughborough - Labour
Louth and Horncastle - Conservative
Lowestoft - Labour
Luton North - Labour
Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Labour
Macclesfield - Labour
Maidenhead - Labour
Maidstone and Malling - Labour
Makerfield - Labour
Maldon - Conservative
Manchester Central - Labour
Manchester Rusholme - Labour
Manchester Withington - Labour
Mansfield - Labour
Melksham and Devizes - Labour
Melton and Syston - Labour
Meriden and Solihull East - Labour
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Labour
Mid Dunbartonshire - Liberal Democrats
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Labour
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East - Labour
Midlothian - Labour
Milton Keynes Central - Labour
Milton Keynes North - Labour
Mitcham and Morden - Labour
Monmouthshire - Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - Labour
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale - Labour
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Labour
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) - Labour
Neath and Swansea East - Labour
New Forest East - Conservative
New Forest West - Conservative
Newark - Labour
Newbury - Liberal Democrats
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne North - Labour
Newcastle-under-Lyme - Labour
Newport East - Labour
Newport West and Islwyn - Labour
Newton Abbot - Labour
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - Labour
Norfolk Mid - Conservative
Norfolk North - Liberal Democrats
Norfolk North West - Conservative
Norfolk South - Labour
Norfolk South West - Conservative
Normanton and Hemsworth - Labour
Northampton North - Labour
Northampton South - Labour
Northamptonshire South - Conservative
Northumberland North - Labour
Norwich North - Labour
Norwich South - Labour
Nottingham East - Labour
Nottingham North and Kimberley - Labour
Nottingham South - Labour
Nuneaton - Labour
Old Bexley and Sidcup - Conservative
Oldham East and Saddleworth - Labour
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton - Labour
Orkney and Shetland - Liberal Democrats
Orpington - Labour
Ossett and Denby Dale - Labour
Oxford East - Labour
Oxford West and Abingdon - Liberal Democrats
Paisley and Renfrewshire North - SNP
Paisley and Renfrewshire South - SNP
Peckham - Labour
Pembrokeshire Mid and South - Labour
Pendle and Clitheroe - Labour
Penistone and Stocksbridge - Labour
Penrith and Solway - Labour
Perth and Kinross-shire - SNP
Peterborough - Labour
Plymouth Moor View - Labour
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Labour
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley - Labour
Pontypridd - Labour
Poole - Labour
Poplar and Limehouse - Labour
Portsmouth North - Labour
Portsmouth South - Labour
Preston - Labour
Putney - Labour
Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Labour
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Labour
Rayleigh and Wickford - Conservative
Reading Central - Labour
Reading West and Mid Berkshire - Labour
Redcar - Labour
Redditch - Conservative
Reigate - Labour
Renfrewshire East - SNP
Rhondda and Ogmore - Labour
Ribble South - Labour
Ribble Valley - Labour
Richmond and Northallerton - Conservative
Richmond Park - Liberal Democrats
Rochdale - Labour
Rochester and Strood - Labour
Romford - Conservative
Romsey and Southampton North - Liberal Democrats
Rossendale and Darwen - Labour
Rother Valley - Labour
Rotherham - Labour
Rugby - Labour
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - Labour
Runcorn and Helsby - Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge - Labour
Rushcliffe - Labour
Rutherglen - Labour
Rutland and Stamford - Conservative
Salford - Labour
Salisbury - Labour
Scarborough and Whitby - Labour
Scunthorpe - Labour
Sefton Central - Labour
Selby - Labour
Sevenoaks - Conservative
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Labour
Sheffield Central - Labour
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats
Sheffield Heeley - Labour
Sheffield South East - Labour
Sherwood Forest - Labour
Shipley - Labour
Shrewsbury - Labour
Shropshire North - Liberal Democrats
Shropshire South - Conservative
Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Conservative
Skipton and Ripon - Labour
Sleaford and North Hykeham - Conservative
Slough - Labour
Smethwick - Labour
Solihull West and Shirley - Conservative
Somerset North - Labour
Somerset North East and Hanham - Labour
South Holland and The Deepings - Conservative
South Shields - Labour
Southampton Itchen - Labour
Southampton Test - Labour
Southend East and Rochford - Labour
Southend West and Leigh - Labour
Southgate and Wood Green - Labour
Southport - Labour
Spelthorne - Labour
Spen Valley - Labour
St Albans - Liberal Democrats
St Austell and Newquay - Labour
St Helens North - Labour
St Helens South and Whiston - Labour
St Ives - Liberal Democrats
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire - Labour
Stafford - Labour
Staffordshire Moorlands - Labour
Stalybridge and Hyde - Labour
Stevenage - Labour
Stirling and Strathallan - SNP
Stockport - Labour
Stockton North - Labour
Stockton West - Labour
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Labour
Stoke-on-Trent North - Labour
Stoke-on-Trent South - Labour
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge - Conservative
Stourbridge - Labour
Stratford and Bow - Labour
Stratford-on-Avon - Conservative
Streatham and Croydon North - Labour
Stretford and Urmston - Labour
Stroud - Labour
Suffolk Central and Ipswich North - Labour
Suffolk Coastal - Labour
Suffolk South - Labour
Suffolk West - Conservative
Sunderland Central - Labour
Surrey East - Labour
Surrey Heath - Conservative
Sussex Mid - Liberal Democrats
Sussex Weald - Labour
Sutton and Cheam - Liberal Democrats
Sutton Coldfield - Labour
Swansea West - Labour
Swindon North - Labour
Swindon South - Labour
Tamworth - Labour
Tatton - Labour
Taunton and Wellington - Liberal Democrats
Telford - Labour
Tewkesbury - Labour
Thanet East - Labour
Thirsk and Malton - Conservative
Thornbury and Yate - Liberal Democrats
Thurrock - Labour
Tipton and Wednesbury - Labour
Tiverton and Minehead - Labour
Tonbridge - Conservative
Tooting - Labour
Torbay - Liberal Democrats
Torfaen - Labour
Torridge and Tavistock - Labour
Tottenham - Labour
Truro and Falmouth - Labour
Tunbridge Wells - Conservative
Twickenham - Liberal Democrats
Tynemouth - Labour
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour
Vale of Glamorgan - Labour
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green - Labour
Wakefield and Rothwell - Labour
Wallasey - Labour
Walsall and Bloxwich - Labour
Walthamstow - Labour
Warrington North - Labour
Warrington South - Labour
Warwick and Leamington - Labour
Warwickshire North and Bedworth - Labour
Washington and Gateshead South - Labour
Watford - Labour
Waveney Valley - Labour
Weald of Kent - Conservative
Wellingborough and Rushden - Labour
Wells and Mendip Hills - Liberal Democrats
Welwyn Hatfield - Labour
West Bromwich - Labour
West Ham and Beckton - Labour
Westmorland and Lonsdale - Liberal Democrats
Weston-super-Mare - Labour
Wetherby and Easingwold - Conservative
Whitehaven and Workington - Labour
Widnes and Halewood - Labour
Wigan - Labour
Wiltshire East - Conservative
Wiltshire South West - Labour
Wimbledon - Liberal Democrats
Winchester - Liberal Democrats
Windsor - Labour
Wirral West - Labour
Witham - Conservative
Witney - Labour
Woking - Liberal Democrats
Wokingham - Liberal Democrats
Wolverhampton North East - Labour
Wolverhampton South East - Labour
Wolverhampton West - Labour
Worcester - Labour
Worcestershire West - Labour
Worsley and Eccles - Labour
Worthing East and Shoreham - Labour
Worthing West - Labour
Wrekin, The - Labour
Wrexham - Labour
Wycombe - Labour
Wyre Forest - Conservative
Wythenshawe and Sale East - Labour
Yeovil - Liberal Democrats
Ynys Mon (Anglesey) - Plaid Cymru
York Central - Labour
York Outer - Labour
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