Accuracy of Groundhog Day's Punxsutawney Phil who predicts the end of winter
With only a few hours remaining until Groundhog Day, it is being reported that Punxsutawney Phil correctly predicts the weather only 40% of the time. This Friday will be the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, where everyone waits to see if Phil predicts more winter or an early spring.
If Phil sees his shadow, legend says we're in for six more weeks of winter. If not, spring could come early. But the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's records show Phil is often wrong, with 108 calls for a long winter and just 20 for an early spring up to 2023.
Phil's got a 39% success rate, says the Stormfax Almanac. FOX Weather's Britta Merwin says, "Looking at the stats, there's only been a couple of years where we've had a no-shadow look for Phil. I will say, Phil is struggling with accuracy. He comes in at 39%."
READ MORE: Groundhog Day in photos: 147 years of winter weather predictions through shadow forecast
Friday marks the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day, a cherished winter tradition (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)In 2023, Phil saw his shadow at 7.25am EST, meaning he predicted more winter. But he was wrong, making some people doubt his skills.
Gales, snow and rain to batter country today with 80mph wind gusts
Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, is the star of the annual Groundhog Day tradition held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on February 2. The legend says if Phil sees his shadow after popping out of his burrow, we're in for six more weeks of winter; if he doesn't, then spring will arrive early.
The ceremony usually takes place at Gobbler's Knob, near Punxsutawney where Phil's burrow is. Folk gather early in the morning on February 2nd to see the event. The Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, who look after Phil, organise the ceremony.
The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club attributes Phil's longevity to a mysterious 'elixir of life' (Getty Images)For all the latest news, politics, sports, and showbiz from the USA, go to The Mirror US
As the sun rises, Phil is gently encouraged out of his burrow by the handlers from the Inner Circle. The groundhog is brought to a special platform where the crowd can easily see him. If Phil sees his shadow, he'll supposedly scurry back into his burrow, meaning there will be six more weeks of winter.
If he doesn't see his shadow, it's said that spring will come early. The president of the Inner Circle then interprets Phil's behaviour and announces the prediction to the crowd, usually with a bit of humour and drama.
Punxsutawney Phil's weather prediction isn't based on science. It's a fun tradition to mark the middle of winter, even if Phil's predictions aren't always right.
In 2023, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter, but the forecast proved incorrect (Getty Images)The FOX Forecast Center's "Shadow Cast" hints that Phil might not see his shadow this year, suggesting an early spring if the groundhog's prediction is correct.
The tradition of using Punxsutawney Phil to predict the weather started in the 1880s. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club says Phil lives so long because of a special "elixir of life." They say Phil drinks this magic potion at the Groundhog Picnic every summer, which adds seven years to his life.
If Phil's weather-predicting skills do not convince you, there are other animal forecasters across the country trying to answer the question: When will winter end?
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