Artificial intelligence could take jobs 50 years earlier than experts predicted

14 January 2024 , 09:00

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Experts have predicted that AI could take our jobs 50 years earlier than they previously predicted (Image: Getty Images)

Experts have issued a stark warning that artificial intelligence (AI) could replace humans in all jobs by 2116, according to a survey of more than 2,700 researchers.

The study suggests there's a 50-50 chance that machines will take over all our jobs within the next century. The experts predict that machines could work "better and more cheaply" than humans "for any occupation" by 2116.

This is almost 50 years earlier than last year's prediction. Goldman Sachs has warned that up to 300 million jobs worldwide are already at risk due to the rapid advancement of AI.

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The "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI" was conducted by six academics from Oxford University, along with institutions in the US and Germany. The survey revealed differing opinions among scientists about the speed of AI development and its potential future impact. All participants were "researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues".

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Some have said that while AI may ultimately take over some jobs, the use of AI will also create other roles (VCG via Getty Images)

A survey of 2,778 attendees at six major AI conferences in October 2023 suggests that AI development is progressing faster than expected. Participants were asked to predict when AI could perform tasks better and cheaper than humans, from folding laundry to writing hit songs like Taylor Swift.

The participants believed there was a 50% chance that AI could outperform humans in most tasks within a decade. More complex tasks, such as installing electrical wiring in a house, were expected to take longer. However, the survey predicted that by 2116, there was a 50% chance that AI could excel in all roles, from bin men to surgeons.

Automated machines are already being used in certain industries (Getty Images/Juice Images RF)

But it's not all doom and gloom. The World Economic Forum predicts that AI will create 12 million more jobs than it replaces in the coming years. Over half of the survey participants expect AI to have a positive impact on humanity, although a significant minority expressed concerns about potential negative side effects.

The survey revealed a range of fears, from the potential for human extinction to more specific concerns like the spread of fake news and the creation of deepfakes. There were also worries about the possibility of AI being used for authoritarian control.

Opinions were divided on the speed of AI development. About 35% of respondents felt that AI should be developed at a slower or faster pace than it currently is. Meanwhile, 27% thought the current pace was just right, with a slight majority favouring a quicker pace. It's important to note that these views come from those in the field - the people driving AI forward or raising alarms about its rapid development.

* An AI tool was used to add an extra layer to the editing process for this story. You can report any errors to [email protected]

Fiona Leishman