Everything you need to know about Gaza conflict that has left thousands dead
Israel has encircled Gaza City as it continues its onslaught on the Palestinian territory following Hamas’s brutal October 7 attack.
But with no obvious endgame in sight, many are wondering what might happen once the Israeli Defence Forces’ military objectives of wiping out the terror group have been achieved.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested he did have a plan this week when he said his country would maintain security control indefinitely after its war ends. We asked two Middle East experts their views on the next steps.
What is Israel’s ultimate aim in its war on Gaza? Aaron David Miller says that what Israel has set out to do is “not just to obliterate Hamas as a military organisation but also to end its sovereignty in Gaza”. He adds: “The day after the war is over, Hamas should not be able to threaten Israel with any of its weapons or cross-border incursions, but it should also not be a major factor in governing Gaza.”
Will they achieve those aims? Mr Miller warns: “We could end up with months of an Israeli reoccupation in Gaza, or a residual Hamas presence.” Marco Carnelos believes Israel can wipe out Hamas, but ultimately not the threat of terrorism. He fears: “The few lucky children who will survive the current Israeli bombings could form the next generation of terrorists who will attack Israel again.”
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Do the Israelis have a plan for what comes next? Mr Miller believes they don’t. He says: “We cannot underestimate the impact of the brutality and savagery of October 7. That has to be factored in to the IDF’s reaction. I think they’re more interested in a body count of Hamas leaders than they are thinking about what’s next. “But I’m sure what’s occurring to them is that they could easily squander any achievements by withdrawing immediately and allowing Hamas to regroup.”
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu this week said his country will take “overall security responsibility” for Gaza after the war. What did he mean? Mr Miller believes Netanyahu’s comments were “an effort to begin conditioning the US to the reality that if or when their campaign concludes, they will have little choice but to stay.” Mr Carnelos thinks the Israeli leader could be planning “a creeping annexation starting from Northern Gaza”.
Might Israel intend to empty Gaza, or annex or permanently reoccupy it? A Gaza with no Gazans would be “ideal” for Israel, says Mr Carnelos. But he doesn’t think it will happen, pointing to the Nakba – the violent displacement of over 700,000 Palestinians in 1948. “I doubt they could easily afford a second Nakba,” he says, adding: “The Egyptian government would be crazy to allow it.”
With Hamas gone from Gaza, who will take over? Mr Miller says it’s difficult to imagine any smooth transition of power. He adds: “It’s conceivable that the international community can summon up a multinational set of peacekeepers and some sort of transitional force that would assume control in the interim. But with 2.3million people, you would need 10,000 peacekeepers.”
Could Israel make a deal with the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza? It would be extremely difficult, believes Mr Miller. “[Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas is now in the 18th year of a four-year term. He has no credibility... he can barely control the 40% of the West Bank where the PA is allowed to operate. Gazans aren’t going to simply welcome the re-establishment of the PA unless it is credible and unless the Gazans are part of a process which chooses the leaders. I don’t think the Israelis have thought this through. And I think one of the reasons the Americans seem to be increasingly unhappy is that they know the Israelis haven’t thought it through.”
What about the idea of an international trusteeship that would temporarily govern Gaza? Mr Carnelos says: “I don’t believe it would work. There would be no appetite at all for any country, or the UN, to run a destroyed Gaza.”
If there ended up being a power vacuum in Gaza, what would be the implications for the world? Mr Carnelos says: “It could become a no man’s land taken over by Islamic radicals worse than Hamas.”Will Israel be safer after all this? Yes, says Mr Miller. “The military capacity of Hamas will be shattered and, even if Hamas can regroup and reconstitute itself in Gaza, it will take a very long time.” No, says Mr Carnelos, who believes Israel will only be safe after it “ends its occupation and allows the birth of a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital”.
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