'Notting Hill Carnival is still connected to crime - statistics prove otherwise'

25 August 2023 , 09:41

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Notting Hill Carnival is celebrating its 55th year (Image: Getty Images)

As more than two million people are expected to descend on west London this August Bank Holiday weekend for Notting Hill Carnival, organisers have blamed unfair coverage for its disproportionate association with crime.

It is a cultural event open for all that started in the west London neighbourhood of Notting Hill more than 55 years ago by Caribbean immigrants looking to celebrate their roots within their new community away from home.

Throughout the decades, the tradition has continued and while gentrification has forced many of the country’s black and Caribbean communities out of the now multi-million-pound neighbourhood, the vibrant weekend stays alive.

However, a persistent narrative that has clung on is that Carnival is disproportionately hit with crime, something organisers passionately disagree with. For example, Tory candidate for London mayor, Susan Hall, called for the event to be moved and compared it to "vandalism", claiming people didn't understand how dangerous it was.

Ahead of this weekend's celebrations, Carnival CEO Matthew Phillip told The Mirror that this simply isn't true, and unfair media coverage up until recent years had perpetuated this. Last year, talented rapper Takayo Nembhard, 21, was tragically stabbed in front of revellers in an unprovoked attack, leaving his family devastated.

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Matthew Phillip, CEO of Notting Hill Carnival (Supplied)

It is often events like this that are the focus of media and critics that lead to misplaced beliefs, he said. However, defenders of Carnival point out that knife crime is a country-wide problem, with someone dying from a knife or sharp object every day and a half in this country. So such a tragedy is not representative of Carnival, but the wider country.

This is worsened, he said, by the Met Police releasing crime statistics for the event annually. It is understood that the force does this when asked, or for large events ahead of when they expect to be asked. Despite all of this, Mr Phillip was optimistic that perceptions of Carnival had improved more recently.

Speaking to The Mirror, he said: "When you look at it, when you scale it up with the numbers, it’s a very safe event, despite what you’d normally see. Things have changed, even last year, with the tragic incident that happened. There will be people who are always anti-Carnival but things are changing.

"I think that’s [the perception] improved over the years. We took over in 2018, and coverage before was very focused on problems. We set out in earnest to change that narrative and challenge some of the things being said and speak to people about the positive things of Carnival. I grew up in Carnival so always thought the media was being unfair."

A persistent narrative that has clung on is that Carnival is disproportionately hit with crime (AFP/Getty Images)

Figures released last year by Metropolitan Police said 74 cops were injured during Notting Hill Carnival. An FOI and figures from the Office for National Statistics quickly showed this wasn't in fact the case - and only 60 were injured with the vast majority of these being "minor non-reportable injuries". However, it was the high-profile reporting around the initial claims that perpetuated the claims around the event.

When put in context, the crime statistics for Notting Hill Carnival do not stand out and rebuff narratives that the event has issues, organisers say. A previous analysis by the Huffington Post found that arrest rates prior to the pandemic were almost identical to that of Glastonbury - an event never lambasted as crime-ridden.

It found that between 2016 and 2019 there were 3.76 arrests per 10,000 people at Notting Hill Carnival compared to 3.1 arrests per 10,000 people at Glastonbury. However, Creamfields, a famous dance music festival, had an arrest rate of 23.67 arrests per 10,000 people - yet is never tarnished as such.

By contrast to fenced-off private festivals, Carnival takes place in the country’s capital and attracts around two million people - compared to Glastonbury’s 200,000 people attending a private event that they pay hundreds to get into. Alongside that, Carnival being so heavily policed, with 9,000 officers at last year's event, means criminals are often caught, and crime is highlighted.

In London, for the year reporting 2022/23, the crime rate was 100.9 crimes per thousand people, according to Statista. If you took Carnival and applied the same metric to it for last year's event, with two million attendees and 209 crimes being committed, it turns out a rate of less than one crime per 1,000 people.

This reflects the reality that crime does take place at Carnival, an event with two million people, but crime rates also put it as a safe event.

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Deputy Assistant Commissioner, Dr Alison Heydari, said: “I’m hugely excited to be working at Notting Hill Carnival again, it’s always such a brilliant weekend with so much to see and enjoy. I’m also looking forward to seeing our officers on duty, taking the time to speak to people we serve, while they work diligently to maintain safety at the event.

“I hope everyone who attends has a brilliant time. Stay safe, plan your routes to and from the area, look after each other and please remember we are there to help you. If you see something that doesn’t look right, do speak to an officer.”

Kieren Williams