Nuclear attack and internet blackout amongst 89 key threats facing UK

02 August 2023 , 23:01

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Russians cutting vital undersea cables, a rogue drone disrupting flights at airports and the assassination of a high-profile public figure are among the biggest threats facing Britain, a report warns today.

The National Risk Register outlined the “89 key threats to the UK's safety and security”, including the collapse of a social care provider, a cyber assault crippling the transport network and a military attack on a NATO ally which triggers the coalition’s self-defence clause.

The UK’s Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Collins said: “A comprehensive understanding of the risks we face is critical to keeping the UK safe. This edition of the NRR, based on the Government’s internal, classified risk assessment offers even more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks facing the UK ranging from terrorism to conflicts and natural disasters."

Experts are increasingly worried about Kremlin submarines targeting underwater fibre optic connections linking Britain to the US.

“The reasonable worst-case scenario assumes that transatlantic subsea fibre optic cables connecting the UK would be damaged over a number of hours, rendering them inoperable. The primary sector impacted would be communications,” says the Register. “There would be considerable disruption to the internet, to essential services that rely upon offshore providers of data services (including financial services), and potentially to supply chain management and payment systems.”

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While the internet would be back online within hours, full repairs would take months, planners warn. The Register also highlights the threat posed by a “malicious drone incident”. Hundreds of flights were grounded and tens of thousands of passengers’ journeys disrupted in 2018 when drone sightings were reported at Gatwick Airport.

The document also warns of the “severe disruption” that could be unleashed by a cyber hack of the transport system. “The attack could result in an immediate outage to services and systems, with potential for this outage lasting several hours and requiring multiple days for services to return to normal,” it says. “The disruption to critical services and systems could result in economic and reputational damage, as well as present an increased threat to passenger safety of the affected operators within or connected to the UK.”

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It also raises fears about Vladimir Putin cutting off gas supplies to European countries - sparking a new price surge which could affect the UK, including electricity powering homes. Under the scenario, “all transit gas that flows from Russia to European states are cut off for several weeks during winter, potentially leading to demand curtailment across Europe; however, domestic heating will be maintained”. The Register says: “Increased gas prices may put certain energy-intensive industries at risk, but household bills are protected by the price cap. A severe gas shortage in mainland Europe for a significant period could also negatively impact continental European gas-fired electricity generation capacity, which could affect the UK’s security of energy supply in winter, impacting household electricity consumers.”

The potential impact of a nuclear attack on Britain is also war-gamed. “In the case of a nuclear event, the impacts would be catastrophic for the UK,” says the Register.

“There would be potentially widespread environmental damage and depending on the scale of the event, long-term exclusion of areas contaminated by radioactive material.” It adds: “The dissemination of radiological material has the potential for large numbers of casualties and fatalities in a relatively localised event.”

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will launch the latest Register today during a visit to energy supplier SSE’s Able Seaton Port in Hartlepool. He said last night: “This is the most comprehensive risk assessment we've ever published, so that government and our partners can put robust plans in place and be ready for anything.”

The full list

International terrorist attack
Northern Ireland related terrorism
Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces: explosive devices
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Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces: marauding attacks
Malicious maritime incident
Malicious rail incident
Malicious aviation incident
Strategic hostage taking
Assassination of a high-profile public figure
Malicious attack on chemicals infrastructure
Conventional attack: gas infrastructure
Cyber attack: gas infrastructure
Conventional attack: electricity infrastructure
Cyber attack: electricity infrastructure
Conventional attack: civil nuclear
Cyber attack: civil nuclear
Conventional attack: fuel supply infrastructure
Cyber attack: fuel supply infrastructure
Attack on government
Cyber attack: health and social care system
Cyber attack: transport sector
Cyber attack: telecommunications systems
Malicious attack: UK financial CNI
Cyber attack: UK retail bank
Total loss of transatlantic telecommunications cables
Disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe
Disruption to global oil trade routes
Accidents and systems failures
Major adult social care provider failure
Insolvency of supplier(s) of critical services to the public sector
Insolvency affecting fuel supply
Rail accident
Large passenger vessel accident
Major maritime pollution incident
Incident (grounding/sinking) of a vessel blocking a major port
Accident involving high-consequence dangerous goods
Aviation collision
Malicious drone incident
Disruption of space-based services
Loss of Positioning, Navigation and Timing services
Simultaneous loss of all fixed and mobile forms of communication
Failure of the National Electricity Transmission System
Regional failure of the electricity network
Failure of gas supply infrastructure
Civil nuclear accident
Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
Radiation exposure from transported, stolen or lost goods
Technological failure at a systemically important retail bank
Technological failure at a UK critical financial market infrastructure
Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major hazard site
Accidental large toxic chemical release from an onshore major hazard site
Accidental fire or explosion on an offshore oil or gas installation
Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline
Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major accident hazard pipeline
Accidental work-related (laboratory) release of a hazardous pathogen
Reservoir/dam collapse
Water infrastructure failure or loss of drinking water
Food supply contamination
Major fire
Wildfire
Volcanic eruption
Earthquake
Humanitarian crisis overseas: natural hazard event
Disaster response in the Overseas Territories
Severe space weather
Storms
High temperatures and heatwaves
Low temperatures and snow
Coastal flooding
Fluvial flooding
Surface water flooding
Drought
Poor air quality
Pandemic
Outbreak of an emerging infectious disease
Animal disease: major outbreak of foot and mouth disease
Animal disease: major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza
Animal disease: major outbreak of African horse sickness
Animal disease: major outbreak of African swine fever
Major outbreak of plant pest: Xylella fastidiosa
Major outbreak of plant pest: Agrilus planipennis
Public disorder
Industrial action
Reception and integration of British nationals arriving from overseas
Deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services
Attack on a UK ally or partner outside NATO or a mutual security agreement requiring international assistance
Attack against a NATO ally or UK-deployed forces, which meets the Article V threshold
Conventional attack on the UK mainland or overseas territories
Nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK