'Putin's reputation was built on control - Wagner's uprising is a crippling humiliation'

25 June 2023 , 20:45

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Tobias Ellwood says there's been a seismic shift in Russia's power dynamics (Image: AP)

In a striking twist of fate, the uprising within Russia's private military company, the Wagner Group, has been neutralised, leaving its notorious leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, banished. This marks a seismic shift in Russia's power dynamics, leaving President Putin badly weakened.

This pivotal event has unmasked the harsh realities of the Ukrainian war and the substantial cost it demands to an increasingly shocked Russian public. As a result, Russia is plunging into an even murkier chapter in its already complex history.

For a man like Putin, who built his reputation on total control and absolute loyalty, his vulnerability is a crippling humiliation. After 23 years in power, this marks a profound and direct challenge to his authority. His grip on power depends on three pillars: his personal credibility, the loyalty of his security apparatus, and his ability to throw resources at any problem, no matter the cost. But now, each pillar is under immense strain.

Learning from past experiences, Putin’s new game plan likely involves a security clampdown and a dogged hunt for dissenters.

'This pivotal event has unmasked the harsh realities of the Ukrainian war' (TELEGRAM/ @concordgroup_official)

Yet, as the 1917 Russian Revolution shows, the initial blow might not appear fatal but is sufficient to spark a chain of unexpected events. With panic spreading and Russians fleeing, echoes of the 1917 coup against the Provisional Government, which resulted in weakened leadership and the rise of revolutionary forces, ring eerily similar.

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Traditionally, Russia values strong leaders who can consolidate the motherland and guard it against threats. But when a leader exhibits signs of weakness or loses the elites' favour, history shows the Kremlin can move rapidly and mercilessly to replace them.

'Now more than ever, Putin's weaknesses stand exposed'

Despite this, the current turbulence within the Russian leadership presents a golden opportunity for Ukraine. The internal strife among Russian leaders could result in a weakened front line and further plummeting morale among Russian soldiers. It's a situation Ukraine must exploit to escalate its counter-offensive.

The Ukrainian war's stagnation, despite increased deployment of troops and resources, is a stark reality check for Putin. It’s a chilling reminder of the risks involved when even the most tightly controlled narratives of war start to unravel. A wave of pent-up anger among the Russian populace could soon boil over, potentially marking a crucial moment in the 16-month war.

Now more than ever, Putin's weaknesses stand exposed and his once mighty fortress appears on the brink of collapse.

chairman of the Commons Defence Committee