Tories face mauling in countryside as rural voters turn on them - see your area

12 February 2024 , 12:03

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Sir Jacob Rees Mogg is among the top Tories expected to lose their seats (Image: James Maloney/Lancs Live)

Tories face being hammered by angry voters in the countryside, with heavyweights including Sir Jacob Rees Mogg and Jeremy Hunt poised to lose their seats, blistering polling shows.

The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England - but new figures show this could drop to just 43 in the next general election. The Chancellor, Transport Secretary Mark Harper and Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride could be given their marching orders, a survey found.

Polling by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) and Survation predicts that Labour could take 51 of the 100 seats seats, with the Lib Dems securing six. Rural voters are angry about being neglected, the findings suggest, with just 28% of respondents saying they expect the next generation of farmers will enjoy a better quality of life than those before them.

Other big name casualties could include Thérèse Coffey, Andrea Leadsom, Brendan Clarke Smith and Liam Fox. Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer and armed forces minister James Heappey are also at risk of losing their seats, the survey shows.

The polling will cause another headache for Rishi Sunak (Greg Martin / Cornwall Live)

The polling, which will make grim reading at Tory HQ, discovered that more people believe Labour respects rural communities than the Tories, by 28% to 25%. Meanwhile Labour's share of the rural vote is tipped to rise to 37%, up a massive 17 percentage points.

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Country Land and Business Association President Victoria Vyvyan said: “People living in the countryside are ambitious – they want to start businesses, create jobs and grow the economy but for decades, governments of all colours have treated the countryside as a museum, failing to generate the conditions necessary for growth.

“This poll makes it clear that rural voters up and down the country feel politically homeless and disconnected from central government – but their votes are still up for grabs. Whichever party produces a robust and ambitious plan for growth in the rural economy will undoubtedly secure support.

“For the good of our rural communities and the nation as a whole, now is the time for the main parties to make it clear that they will back the countryside.”

What could happen in the 100 most rural constituencies

Arundel and South Downs - Andrew Griffith, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Bassetlaw - Brendan Clarke-Smith, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Berwick-upon-Tweed - Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Beverley and Holderness - Graham Stuart, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Bishop Auckland - Dehenna Davison, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Boston and Skegness - Matt Warman, Tory - TORY HOLD

Bridgwater and West Somerset - Ian Liddell-Grainger, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

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Brigg and Goole - Andrew Percy, Tory - TORY HOLD

Broadland - Jerome Mayhew, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Buckingham - Greg Smith, Tory - TORY HOLD

Bury St Edmunds - Jo Churchill, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Central Devon - Mel Stride, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Chichester - Gillian Keegan, Tory - TORY HOLD

Congleton - Fiona Bruce, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Copeland - Trudy Harrison, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Daventry - Chris Heaton-Harris, Tory - TORY HOLD

Derbyshire Dales - Sarah Dines, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Devizes - Danny Kruger, Tory - TORY HOLD

East Hampshire - Damian Hinds, Tory - TORY HOLD

East Yorkshire - Greg Knight, Tory - TORY HOLD

Eddisbury - Edward Timpson, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Forest of Dean - Mark Harper, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Gainsborough - Edward Leigh, Tory - TORY HOLD

Grantham and Stamford - Gareth Davies, Tory - TORY HOLD

Harwich and North Essex - Bernard Jenkin, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Hemsworth - Jon Trickett, Labour - LABOUR HOLD

Henley - John Howell, Tory - TORY HOLD

Hexham - Guy Opperman, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Huntingdon - Jonathan Djanogly, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Isle of Wight - Bob Seely, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Kenilworth and Southam - Jeremy Wright, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Lancaster and Fleetwood - Cat Smith, Labour - LABOUR HOLD

Louth and Horncastle - Victoria Atkins, Tory - TORY HOLD

Ludlow - Philip Dunne, Tory - TORY HOLD

Maldon - John Whittingdale, Tory - TORY HOLD

Mid Bedfordshire - Alistair Strathern, Labour (by-election win) - LABOUR HOLD

Mid Norfolk - George Freeman, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Mid Worcestershire - Nigel Huddleston, Tory - TORY HOLD

Mole Valley - Paul Beresford, Tory - LIB DEM GAIN

New Forest West - Desmond Swayne, Tory - TORY HOLD

Newton Abbot - Anne Marie Morris, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North Cornwall - Scott Mann, Tory - TORY HOLD

North Devon - Selaine Saxby, Tory - TORY HOLD

North Dorset - Simon Hoare, Tory - TORY HOLD

North East Bedfordshire - Richard Fuller, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North East Cambridgeshire - Steve Barclay, Tory - TORY HOLD

North East Somerset - Jacob Rees-Mogg, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North Herefordshire - Bill Wiggin, Tory - TORY HOLD

North Norfolk - Duncan Baker, Tory - TORY HOLD

North Shropshire - Helen Morgan, Lib Dem - LABOUR GAIN

North Somerset - Liam Fox, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North Warwickshire - Craig Tracey, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North West Durham - Richard Holden, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

North West Hampshire - Kit Malthouse, Tory - TORY HOLD

North West Leicestershire - Andrew Bridgen, independent (formerly Tory) - LABOUR GAIN

North Wiltshire - James Gray, Tory - TORY HOLD

Penrith and The Border - Neil Hudson, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Richmond (Yorks) - Rishi Sunak, Tory - TORY HOLD

Rutland and Melton - Alicia Kearns, Tory - TORY HOLD

Saffron Walden - Kemi Badenoch, Tory - TORY HOLD

Sedgefield - Paul Howell, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Selby and Ainsty - Keir Mather, Labour (by-election win) - LABOUR HOLD

Sevenoaks - Laura Trott, Tory - TORY HOLD

Sherwood - Mark Spencer, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Skipton and Ripon - Julian Smith, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Sleaford and North Hykeham - Caroline Johnson, Tory - TORY HOLD

Somerton and Frome - Sarah Dyke, Lib Dem (by-election win) - TORY GAIN

South Cambridgeshire - Anthony Browne, Tory - LIB DEM GAIN

South East Cambridgeshire - Lucy Frazer, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

South East Cornwall - Sheryll Murray, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

South Holland and The Deepings - John Hayes, Tory - TORY HOLD

South Norfolk - Richard Bacon, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

South Northamptonshire - Andrea Leadsom, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

South Suffolk - James Cartlidge, Tory - TORY HOLD

South West Norfolk - Liz Truss, Tory - TORY HOLD

South West Surrey - Jeremy Hunt, Tory - LIB DEM GAIN

St Austell and Newquay - Steve Double, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

St Ives - Derek Thomas, Tory - LIB DEM GAIN

Staffordshire Moorlands - Karen Bradley, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Stone - Bill Cash, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Stratford-on-Avon - Nadhim Zahawi, Tory - TORY HOLD

Suffolk Coastal - Therese Coffey, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

The Cotswolds - Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Tory - TORY HOLD

Thirsk and Malton - Kevin Hollinrake, Tory - TORY HOLD

Tiverton and Honiton - Richard Foord, Lib Dem (by-election win) - LABOUR GAIN

Torridge and West Devon - Geoffrey Cox, Tory - TORY HOLD

Totnes - Anthony Mangnall, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Truro and Falmouth - Cherilyn Mackrory, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Wansbeck - Ian Lavery, Labour - LABOUR HOLD

Wantage - David Johnston, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Wealden - Nusrat Ghani, Tory - TORY HOLD

Wells - James Heappey, Tory - LIB DEM GAIN

West Dorset - Chris Loder, Tory - TORY HOLD

West Suffolk - Matthew Hancock, Tory - TORY HOLD

West Worcestershire - Harriett Baldwin, Tory - TORY HOLD

Westmorland and Lonsdale - Tim Farron, Lib Dem - LIB DEM HOLD

Witham - Priti Patel, Tory - TORY HOLD

Witney - Robert Courts, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Workington - Mark Jenkinson, Tory - LABOUR GAIN

Yeovil - Marcus Fysh, Tory - TORY HOLD

Dave Burke