Trump has 'skeletons in his cupboard' that could ruin his 2024 White House bid
Despite former President Donald Trump leading the Republican primaries, an expert has warned that there are "lots of skeletons in his cupboard that may yet come out" which could potentially hinder his return to the White House.
As the 2024 Republican candidate race began with the caucus on Monday, Trump won 51 per cent of the votes. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley followed with 21.1 per cent and 19.1 per cent respectively.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy only secured 7.7 per cent of votes, which led him to drop out of the race and support Trump instead. Despite speculation that Trump may be unbeatable in a rematch with President Joe Biden for the White House, David Dunn, Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham, suggested it might not be so straightforward for Trump.
"There are lots of skeletons in his cupboard that may yet come out," he told The Mirror. "I mean, if you go back to 2016, the Access Hollywood tape about him grabbing a woman by the genitals, it's entirely possible there's more stuff like that."
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An expert in international politics warned that numerous skeletons in Donald Trump's closet could stand in the way of his return to the White House (No credit)Donald Trump - the wild card
Trump, the former President, is facing a tough time with six legal cases against him. These are from the Department of Justice, Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, New York Attorney General Letitia James, and writer E Jean Carroll. With so many cases, both federal and civil, Trump's future is uncertain. Some of these cases could even see him behind bars.
Professor Dunn explained: "What we don't know is the impact of the whole legal jeopardy that Trump faces over the next year," and "and whether that continues to strengthen his support among his base, or whether actually, when we do get the facts out in court, and the cases that haven't yet been presented of his alleged criminality on 91 charges, whether that actually, especially if we get any convictions, whether that has a material impact on his national standing and therefore, whether at some point or other, he realizes that and decides actually to do a deal whereby he disappears off... That's a real possibility over the next year, it depends on the timing of the legal cases."
DeSantis came in second to Trump (Getty Images)However, Trump's loyal supporters may "love him even more" if more instances of Trump "being sexist, racist, using foul language, and generally being abusive" come to light, says Professor Dunn. But he also notes, "that's not the majority of the population."
Professor Dunn pointed out that Trump stands out from his Republican and Democrat rivals. He said there's an "element of threat" and "aspect of jeopardy" linked to Trump's bid to return to the White House.
"Because he would be even more disruptive the second time around," Professor Dunn predicted. He added: "So, there's a degree to which the coverage is much more intense on him - he just has to move in his motorcade to get attention. And therefore, there's a degree to which is becomes self-reinforcing, the fact that he is this dominant figure in American politics."
Vivek Ramaswamy, right, has dropped out of the running and is now supporting Trump (Getty Images)Did Trump really win the Iowa caucuses?
While the Iowa caucus results showed Trump in the lead, Professor Dunn warned that these results can be misleading. He explained that Iowa, being the first caucus, gets a lot of attention each year, but we should be cautious about the results.
"Iowa is untypical in terms of demographics - older, whiter, more rural, less college-educated, 90 per cent white, much more Evangelical than the rest of the country," Professor Dunn explained. He also mentioned that Iowa's population, just over three million, "makes it less than one per cent of the US population".
"So there you've got a tiny sample, and then you've got a self-selecting subsection of a tiny sample, which is the people who turned out to vote - which is 110,000, which statistically is almost meaningless in the size of America altogether," he explained. "Then you've got the fact that Trump, effectively, has the status of an incumbent given he was President before, that hasn't happened since 1940, and because of that, actually, you can't really compare him with other candidates who may have won Iowa in the past."
"In fact, you could argue, the fact that he only got 50 per cent of the vote is an indication [that] despite his dominance of the Republican party and the airwaves in particular for the last year, or indeed the last eight years, the fact he only got 50 per cent of the vote is an indication of just how skeptical many, even Republicans, are of Trump - rather than the way in which the media seems to have reacted to it, suggesting that this is a major triumph and that someway his march towards the White House is inevitable."
As the world prepares for a Trump-Biden rematch in the 2024 Presidential election, Professor Dunn said things may not turn out as predicted (getty)Professor Dunn spoke about the media's focus on Trump's Iowa caucus results, saying: "It at once is an exaggeration of the importance of Iowa and at the same time as that, it also becomes self-fulfilling, because actually then people think 'Oh yeah, it's going to happen', and maybe that's the view they take of the rest of the primaries and caucuses and it's not necessarily that case. There is a narrow window for Nikki Haley to come through if she does really well in New Hampshire and South Carolina, still an outside chance, but it's a chance."
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Ron DeSantis has chosen not to visit New Hampshire for the next Republican face-off, instead heading straight to South Carolina. Professor Dunn explained this decision, stating: "He recognises that he isn't going to do well because of the demographics in New Hampshire."
Professor Dunn also discussed the potential rivalry between Haley and Trump in New Hampshire, saying: "In New Hampshire, it's a case of whether Haley picks up the cudgel and goes after Trump, recognising that it's now between him and her who comes first in New Hampshire." He noted Haley's apparent "reluctance" to challenge Trump too strongly, suggesting she might be "keeping open the prospect of being vice president" and not wanting to "alienate the Trumpian base, the fanatical cult-like support for Trump within that section of the Republican party."
Professor Dunn noted that Nikki Haley, pictured, could have an outside chance of doing well in the primaries (Getty Images)"She has a narrow path to tread there, but it may well be the case that it's now or never in terms of actually, her putting the boot into Trump in a way that makes a material difference to his standing by taking him on... There's a whole variety of issues that Trump is vulnerable on, if the candidates are prepared to actually pick up the cudgel and go after him."
As for DeSantis, Professor Dunn said the Florida Governor's prospects are looking "dismal". He added: "He's effectively out. What he tried to be was the electable Trump. So he had all the nasty politics of Trump without the winning personality of Trump."
Professor Dunn continued: "He came across as awkward, as vindictive, unpersonable... He spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Iowa, he actually spent a huge amount of time visiting all 99 counties in Iowa. Iowa was his make or break."
"And to come two per cent above Haley and to come 30 per cent behind Trump was a disaster for him. If you look at the graphs of his support, they're going down in just the same way that Haley's are coming up. His moment is gone. He is a has been."
Professor Dunn said Biden's 'doddery' image won't be going anywhere (Bryan Olin Dozier/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock)'Bleak' outlook for Biden
When it comes to the Democrats, Professor Dunn also noted that President Joe Biden's prospects are looking "pretty bleak actually". He explained: "I think that the coalition that put Biden in office has disentangled, has disappeared."
"He's lost support of Black voters, young voters, left-wing voters, and Muslim voters in particular key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. So at this stage of the game it's looking really bad. Now, again, polls can narrow, things can change, the war in Israel [with] Hamas could end and therefore become a distant memory when we get to November."
"But, he won't get any younger and that perception of him being old and doddery is not likely to change. So it's really a question of whether he can make the case stick that Trump is a threat to democracy and that's enough reason to [vote for him]."
Professor Dunn said: "My predictions are that this year will be much less predictable than people think - in terms of there are opportunities for lots of different things to affect the outcome of the election before we get to a Trump-Biden rematch in November."
* An AI tool was used to add an extra layer to the editing process for this story. You can report any errors to [email protected]
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