New Covid subvariant Juno could spark huge rise in UK cases for two key reasons
As snow falls across parts of the UK and a new Covid subvariant is on the rise, case rates could spark a big rise this new year.
Two key factors could play a vital role in the spread of Covid as Brits enter the second week of 2024. Like many winter viruses, Covid is spreading once again, this time under the thrust of JN.1 - a subvariant that has 40 mutations on the previous most common strain.
Alongside the likes of flu, norovirus and RSV it is increasing pressure on the NHS this winter. But there are two factors that could lead to Juno spreading further and faster this winter. Christmas is often a busy social season for many, seeing beloved friends and family, or catching up with old pals you haven’t seen in a while.
The increased mixing means more exposure to others and the various illnesses they carry. This creates an ideal environment for the virus to spread. However, this is made even worse by the freezing cold weather that has spread across the UK, following three storms over the festive season.
Yesterday saw snow fall in the capital and the colder weather benefits the spread of viruses - as we often see not just Covid, but the likes of flu and norovirus spread more in the winter as well. According to UKHSA data, cases have been on the up since around mid November. But early indications suggest that there has been a slight drop or fall off in rates - however, how sustained this will be isn’t clear.
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Covid cases remain higher in women than men, as they have for much of the pandemic, and recent weeks have also seen a sharp uptick in hospitalisation of Covid patients. This often corresponds, via a natural time lag, to an increase in deaths later on as well.
However, there are mixed signals amongst Covid activity more generally, with test positivity rates and reported acute respiratory outbreaks stabilising. Flu however, is on the uptick in most indicators including hospital admissions passing the medium impact threshold.
Two-thirds of Covid cases were classified as BA.2.86, which includes subvariant JN.1. The most recent data has seen a slight fall off in case numbers as various Omicron lineages and sub-lineages continue to dominate the Covid picture in the UK, under which JN.1 falls. One expert has warned that this wave likely hasn’t peaked yet, and is still on its way up.
University College London Data scientist Professor Christina Pagel told The i: "BA.2 – England's largest ever wave in March and April 2022 – peaked four weeks after it reached 50 per cent of cases.
"So unfortunately it is likely that this JN.1 wave has not yet peaked and will peak mid-January, either next week or the week after. And then infections will stay very high for a few weeks on the downward slope too. I am sure this wave will rival the first two Omicron waves in 2022 and might even exceed them."
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