Covid infections 'to peak tomorrow' as flu cases up 45% and norovirus on rise
Flu and other winter viruses have surged while new modelling suggests Covid-19 infections are most likely to peak tomorrow.
Flu hospitalisations were up 45 per cent in the week up to Christmas Eve, with latest data suggesting community infections are still on a steep increase. There were an average of 942 patients with flu in hospital each day last week in England including 48 in critical care. That is around six times higher than a month ago.
A winter Covid wave had risen in the build up to Christmas and a leading modeller says it is likely to be peaking around now following festive gatherings. Case rates have doubled to 4.3 per cent of the population in recent weeks with 2.5 million people infected in the first half of December.
Professor Karl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London, calculates cases will peak in late December or early January, with Saturday the most probable date. "The next peak in prevalence is anticipated to be in the next few days, on or around December 30," he told the i.
England’s top doctor Prof Stephen Powis said: “These figures demonstrate the storm of pressure the NHS is facing with huge rises in flu patients over the last few weeks and many more norovirus cases than we saw last winter, as well as the ongoing impact of Covid.
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“I would urge the public to get their Covid and flu vaccines if they are eligible, make sure you order repeat prescriptions in advance of the upcoming bank holiday weekend, and as ever only use 999 or A&E in an emergency, with 111 online the best place to go for any other conditions.”
Cases of the winter vomiting bug have remained high with 452 patients hospitalised with it each day last week. That was 61 per cent higher than the same week last year. Last week hospitals saw three days of industrial action by junior doctors with 86,329 appointments and operations having to be rescheduled. An unprecedented six-day strike will take place between January 3 and 9.
NHS England Medical Director Professor Stephen Powis said the NHS is facing a 'storm of pressure' (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)Prof Powis added: “Unfortunately the [strike] impact is likely to be much more severe next week with six days of industrial action planned by junior doctors, the longest in NHS history, at a time when hospitals usually experience the most pressure with high demand and higher levels of virus admissions.”
Latest NHS England data shows there were 3,620 patients with Covid-19 in hospital on December 24. NHS staff absences due to Covid were up to around 2,600 workers on average every day last week.
The current Covid surge is being driven by the new, more contagious JN.1 subvariant which increased its share of new infections to 48 per cent on December 23.
Prof Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, said: "We continue to be confronted by new Covid variants which are unpredictable and, together with the inevitable increase in mixing over the Christmas period, increases the risk of a spike of infections just at the time when the NHS will be experiencing its usual winter pressures."
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