Putin 'could vanish tomorrow' in Black Swan-style coup, ex-CIA chief warns

23 December 2023 , 20:09

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Putin could be in his final days and is at a major risk of a Black Swan-style assassination (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Vladimir Putin could be nearing the end of his reign and faces being toppled in a 'Black Swan' style coup, according to former CIA chief.

The Russian premier has been in power, both as Prime Minister and President, since 1999 and is already gearing up to run for re-election next year. But as the world nears the two-year mark since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, many think the end is nigh for his tenure.

According to Jack Devine, who served the Central Intelligence Agency as Acting Director, the dictator could plausibly "disappear tomorrow" and would be more likely to end his reign of tyranny with a "golden pistol" himself than face assassination. Such an event would likely create a huge power struggle with ripples felt across the world.

The term 'black swan' refers to events of global magnitude which shock the world, but which in retrospect appear inevitable. Mr Devine, 83, said the chances were already increasing as the leader faces the prospect of a "permanent stalemate" in Ukraine.

Putin has already allegedly dodged a number of assassination attempts, most notably an armed uprising led by Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin earlier this year. Prigozhin was later confirmed dead by the Kremlin, reportedly among the victims of a plane crash.

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Mr Devine, who worked for the CIA for 32 years, told The Sun: "Putin could disappear tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised if some element in the government had decided they were going to take executive action. But failing a 'Black Swan' I believe his troubles begin when there's a stalemate and that's right now."

He added: "I don't think it'll be an uprising. I think it'll be a what we might call a palace coup." Russia is set to hold its next election in March, with Putin having already confirmed he will stand again. Pundits have predicted the tyrant will likely win.

Anti-war journalist and top Putin critic Yekaterina Duntsova has meanwhile been barred from standing as an independent by the Kremlin. The 40-year-old planned to contend on the promise of ending the war and told Reuters news agency following her announcement in November that "any sane person taking this step would be afraid" but that "fear must not win".

Meanwhile Mr Devine said Russia's failing efforts in Ukraine were likely not going to improve any time soon, but that the leader would never withdraw at this stage and that the only chance of the war ending would be from a state of permanent stalemate. "He hasn't been driven out of Ukraine, but a standstill is not a victory," he added

"The Ukrainians aren't going to give them territory. Putin's not going to withdraw."

Susie Beever