No Tory seat is safe if Keir Starmer's by-election blockbuster is repeated

21 October 2023 , 18:14

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Keir Starmer celebrating the victory in Mid Bedfordshire with new MP Alastair Strathern (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

To say the results of the by-elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire were historic would be an understatement.

No government has ever lost a seat as safe as Tamworth, while Labour’s victory in leafy Mid Bedfordshire illustrates how there aren’t any “no-go” areas for Keir Starmer’s party. Plugging these results into our models demonstrates the depth of the hole the Conservatives are in. If the swings in these by-elections were replicated across the country, then the Tories would fall to around 50 seats, with big beasts from across the party losing to Labour or Lib Dem opponents.

This would include former leader Theresa May in Maidenhead, former Chancellor Sajid Javid in Bromsgrove, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove in Surrey Heath, and MP for Northeast Somerset Jacob Rees Mogg. Meanwhile Labour would hold a three-figure majority, even larger than the one Tony Blair achieved in 1997. But by-elections are not general elections. They tend to have lower turnout and voters will always take the opportunity to give the government a kicking. It’s also likely that we have a long way to go before we all get to have our say.

These humiliating results have increased the chances that the Prime Minister will wait as long as possible before going to the country, which means an election in the winter of 2024, or even January 2025. Tory strategists will hope that this extra time might mean the cost-of-living crisis eases and voters forget about the economic crisis the Tories created when they gave the Downing Street keys to Liz Truss.

Keir Starmer has clearly shown voters that the party has changed, and the British public have lost patience in the Tories’ incompetence. However, for Labour to build on recent success they need to continue setting out a positive vision to the country. We saw this in Starmer’s conference speech, where he argued his five missions would get Britain its future back. Recent polls have shown a boost for Labour after the speech, and a nine-point rise in the leader’s approval ratings.

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But the electorate is more volatile than it has ever been before. There can be no complacency within Labour as they continue to make the case that it’s time for change.

Chris Curtis