Humiliated Tories get so few votes they lose deposit in by-election disaster

06 October 2023 , 06:47

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Candidates on stage as Labour's Michael Shanks delivers his victory speech (Image: PA)

Scottish Tories have faced humiliation at a key by-election with the party losing its deposit due to a collapse in its vote share.

It came as Labour stormed to victory - defeating its main challenger the SNP - at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West vote, with a huge 20.4% swing. Labour's Michael Shanks seized the seat from the SNP by 17,845 votes to 8,399, a majority of 9,446. Keir Starmer hailed the vote as a "seismic result".

At the 2017 general election the Conservatives secured 12% of the vote share - a figure that increased to 15% at the 2019 general election. But on Friday morning the Tory candidate Thomas Kerr lost his deposit, coming third with just 1,192 votes and 3.9% of the vote share. Candidates failing to win 5% of the vote share must forfeit their £500 deposit.

The by-election was called after a recall petition against Margaret Ferrier, who had won the seat for the SNP in 2019 with a majority of 5,230. Ms Ferrier however had the SNP whip removed after breaching Covid rules in 2020, and after remaining as an independent MP was suspended from the House of Commons, resulting in the recall petition.

The landslide result for Labour will emolden Mr Starmer as his party heads into its annual conference this weekend. Strategists see reviving the party's fortunes north of the border as critical to their path to power.

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Elections supremo Professor John Curtice told the BBC that if the result was replicated at a general election, Labour would win 42 of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland. "We would be back to the politics of Scotland before the 2014 independence referendum," he said.

Asked on the BBC Radio 4's Today programme whether he was surprised by the scale of the victory for Labour, he replied: "Yes, undoubtedly." He added: "This kind of victory... by-election swings on this scale are the kind of swings historically at least oppositions have secured when they are going on to win the next general election.

"Indeed the last time Labour won and gained a seat in a parliamentary by-election in Scotland you'd have to go back before the 1964 by-election - but it was in Rutherglen and Labour won the seat from the Conservatives".

On the number of seats Labour could secure north of the border, he went on: "Labour's claims that they might win 24 seats... that certainly looks possible. I'm not going to say it's guaranteed - it's still 12 months until the general election."

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Ashley Cowburn