Unwanted Premier League record three clubs are at risk of breaking this season
For Burnley and Luton the line is about to be crossed, Sheffield United are already in the red and all three promoted teams have started their campaign in such bleak fashion that comparisons with Derby County’s worst-performing class of 2007-08 are inevitable.
The three clubs are locked on a single point, the former pair after five games compared to the latter’s six. And it was that sixth match in which the record-breaking Rams recorded their first of two wins to move on to four points.
Their accumulated record reads P16 W0 D3 L13 F12 A41. So the chances of a worse return than the 11 points accumulated by Derby already seems high.
Yet there are extenuating circumstances here, all framed by the financial realities of a system broken by billionaire owners and a rewards system skewed towards an established handful.
Derby had fewer resources than most of their competitors but not to this extent were they hampered by an absence of money.
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Certainly in the case of Luton, who were shocked to have won the play-offs, and Sheffield United, whose problematic ownership situation has limited what they can do in the transfer market - although Burnley have spent close to £100m and faced a tough run of early fixtures.
Last season all three promoted sides stayed up but all invested significantly in their squad. And while it will be easy for rivals fans to point and laugh at the struggles these sides will face throughout the season, it is really a concerning reflection on how distorted the sport is becoming.
Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom, no doubt peeved at suggestions that former Blades boss Chris Wilder is waiting in the wings, said talk of them immediately falling back to the Championship was “100% disrespectful.” Of course it is but it would also be an achievement far more impressive than, say, Pep Guardiola winning another title for the Blades or Luton to finish the campaign outside the bottom three.
Heckingbottom, who travels to face a formidable West Ham on Saturday, added: “But do we expect anything different? No. That type of talk is becoming more common. Last season the newly-promoted teams did well.
“But with the talk surrounding the game, the microscope on it and everyone’s opinion, I think there’s more pundits than players now isn’t there nowadays? That’s what adds more stories, and more fuel to a story.”
Even Luton’s EFL Cup defeat away to Exeter on Tuesday night should not be met with that much surprise and their manager, Rob Edwards, summed the mindset up nicely with the simple message that all they can do is keep fighting against the odds.
“Morale is good. What do people want us to do? Sulk and moan? Go into our shells? Or come out fighting? We have to take our medicine and come out fighting against Everton.”
Luton face the Toffees this weekend in a real crunch showdown, considering Sean Dyche’s team were being looked at as one of the established sides at risk. These are the games that Luton need to be getting points from if they are to achieve the unthinkable and remain in the Premier League.
But another dynamic is how it will let other clubs enduring bad seasons off the hook. When Gary O’Neil is talking about his Wolves team not looking like one coached by him, the alarm bells should immediately ring.
But for this season at least there is the closest thing to a safety blanket because even if things go spectacularly wrong at Molineux, amid limitations on their own ability to spend, then there is still a huge gulf in resources.
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Since the Premier League’s inception, 40 promoted teams have gone straight back down. But only once, in 1997-98 when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace were relegated, have they all failed to survive.
Should that happen again and should the Derby record be broken, many will find the amusing side. But the reaction should be one of great concern as the Premier League walks towards becoming a de facto closed shop.
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