NHS funding 'must return to pre-Tory levels' to fill staffing black hole
NHS funding will have to return to levels not seen since before the Tories came to power if it is to fill staffing shortfalls.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has conducted analysis on the cost of NHS England’s “historic” workforce plan. Boosting staffing to the required levels would require a return to annual Government funding rises of 3.6%. This was the same as the average rise awarded to the NHS since 1949 however the last decade has seen this drop to 2.4%.
The long-awaited workforce plan published earlier this year would see the workforce grow from 1.4 million to 2.3 million over 15 years to cater for a growing and ageing population. The Government has backed the plan in theory but not committed detailed funding plans.
Max Warner, research economist at IFS and an author of the paper, said: "We estimate that the plan might imply average real-terms funding growth of around 3.6% per year for the NHS in England. That is by no means outlandish by historical standards, but would nonetheless require difficult fiscal decisions in the current climate of sluggish growth.”
The first ever modelling of how many medics the NHS would need to properly care for the population suggests almost half of public sector workers would work for the NHS. It would employ one in 11 workers overall. It comes as the UK as a whole has some of the fewest medics per head of population compared to other developed nations.
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Danny Mortimer, deputy chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “We know that the workforce plan will require long term funding if it’s to be rolled out successfully, and health leaders will agree that NHS funding should revert to the long run average growth rate to be in line with the ever-growing demand the NHS faces. We have an ageing and growing population, with increasingly complex needs.”
The Government has so far only committed to providing funding to expand training places in first five years of the 15-year strategy. The £2.4 billion allocated covers the expansion of training and education places, but not the cost of employing any more staff.
A Department for Health and Social Care spokeswoman said: “The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan is both a plan for investment and a plan for reform. As well as doubling medical school places and almost doubling the number of adult nurses and midwives in training, it sets out how we will deliver long-term productivity improvements in the NHS workforce.
“We will train new types of staff to free up doctors’ and nurses’ time so they can spend more time caring for patients, remove regulatory barriers facing healthcare professionals, and train doctors to work in more flexible ways. We are backing the plan with over £2.4 billion over the next five years. Decisions about spending review periods beyond this will be announced in the usual way, but this demonstrates our commitment to delivering the whole plan.”
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