'Donald Trump wants America to vote for a crime boss - and it just might'
Nothing says 'loser' more loudly than an arrogant man who acts like he's already won.
When Donald Trump lost the election, he claimed he'd stormed it then tried to steal it. When he lost repeated court cases on tax evasion and sexual assault and defamation, he said he'd have won if it hadn't been a stitch up. And now indicted on felonies even a president can't pardon, it's not his own fault but the deep state's.
For most it's a car crash they can't resist rubber-necking, and for his base the way a rich, orange New Yorker is being treated is yet more evidence of how there's a global conspiracy against poor, white, rustbelt America. For Trump it is, like his presidency, an opportunity to make money - in this case, putting his mugshot on mugs, bumper stickers, flags, hats, and any other sweatshop-produced tat he can flog to unquestioning victims of his con.
"The American people know what's going on," his website boasts, to people who clearly don't. "President Trump will NEVER SURRENDER our great country to the Left’s tyranny!" it adds, failing to mention he's a) not the president and b) sending men in buffalo hats to the Capitol because you can't admit you're a loser is very much what tyranny looks like.
His shop window promises to dismantle the deep state he somehow ignored for four years when he was in charge of it, and begs for campaign contributions from people infinitely poorer, and who pay far more taxes, than he. And yet, it's working.
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Because while most sane humans shake their heads with despair, and think a £25 t-shirt with the phrase 'never surrender our country to tyranny' and a picture of Trump is not the ringing endorsement he might imagine, his Trumpkins are energised.
This is what they ALWAYS expected. The world, its systems and its winners are always arraigned against them. They were primed to believe the election was stolen before Trump told them to steal it back, and now he's indicted on more than 90 charges covering racketeering, election fraud, a failed coup d'etat and theft of state secrets, it is overwhelming proof they are the victims, and he's their guy.
Within the Republican party as a whole, though, it's not selling as well. Trump's popularity with GOP voters has dropped 10 points while the indictments increased, and two-thirds of American voters as a whole despair of the man. His base is narrow, and shrinking, so why is he strutting like he's cock of the walk?
Because all this gets his little base so riled, they're energised to come out in force for the primaries - an energy they wouldn't have if he weren't so cocksure. They scare and confuse his rivals, who are left floundering and split the remaining Republican votes. He is on course to be the Right's nominee for the next presidential election, despite being 78, clearly deranged, and in all likelihood by the time of the vote a convicted criminal.
It's amazing what people will forgive a rich man, isn't it? (Getty Images)The Democrats meanwhile have had their hands tied by Joe Biden, with a presidency shackled by the same pandemic nightmares as the rest of the world, no boom time to boost him, and a position on the global stage not so much dominated as mostly-abandoned, especially if you're Afghanistan. A different candidate could smash Trump's second run; Biden just doesn't stir voters in the same way.
Trump is banking on the fact his base will get him on the ticket, and once there the party will row in behind him and the machine will reliably get him over the line, just like last time. Jail terms will be on hold while he and his family can get their hands on whatever they didn't take in their last powergrab. But like all arrogant men, he's ignoring a fundamental truth.
You can't please all of the people all of the time, and while he's doing enough to blow his Trump-pets, it is having the opposite effect on the rest of America. Biden's support is steady, while Trump's has dropped. He's more popular in his own party than Trump is in his, and among black and Hispanic voters, who account for a quarter of all those in the US, Biden is way in the lead. And when it comes to the presidential race, standard-issue Republican stances about abortion and equal rights will work in the Democrats' favour; even Republican voters and politicians have been backing abortion, as individual states reject efforts to criminalise it.
Trump's felonies, publicity and criminal charges titivate his supporters, but infuriate everyone else. And while support for Biden is lukewarm now, it will tumesce once Trump is on the ballot. The invigoration and publicity provided by the criminal process goes both ways, but like every vain peacock Trump sees only what suits him.
He knows his base will back someone charged with being, effectively, a crime boss. They'd have backed Al Capone, too, if he'd run for office on the basis of ending prohibition and taking a baseball bat to the heads of his enemies. But most of America won't, and when faced with this kind of criminal the apathy they might otherwise feel will evaporate like a stripper's knickers.
You can never underestimate him, nor the ability of Americans to be as thick as mince. But the odds are that while Trump might win the not-much-of-a-battle for the nomination, he'll probably lose bigly in court and at the ballot box.
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He's acting like the presidency in the bag. What he doesn't realise is he's the one in the sack, along with some rocks, and it's about to be tossed into the river of history.
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