Only one thing protecting Putin from Wagner after Prigozhin's 'assassination'
The aftershock of the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin may be felt for years across Russia and signals a pivotal moment in Russian President Vladimir Putin's struggle to hold onto power.
Prigozhin has been a dead man walking for two months since his so-called “march on Moscow” mutiny faltered, became a high-risk step too far for the Kremlin leader and his death was inevitable. But the fact that even in so-called exile in Belarus, he was still seeking publicity and openly trying to gather his Wagner men together may have brought on his death sooner.
Although he had served nine years behind bars for a series of grubby crimes he became a kind of monster-rock star for Wagner troops, many of them murderers recruited from prisons. Ultra-nationalists are now flocking to a St Petersburg shrine for Prigozhin, some of them relatives of Wagner dead who fought in Ukraine and some comparing him to Stalin.
This photograph posted on a Wagner-linked Telegram channel shows a plane engulfed in flames (TELEGRAM/ @grey_zone/AFP via Get)For Putin, there is a worrying possibility he may have created a martyr whose history may be re-written as some kind of hero on Russian city street corners. Many Russian families are affected by the war in Ukraine having lost relatives and to justify their deaths they may have built Prigozhin into something he was not - someone to be admired.
Just months ago I interviewed two captured Wagner Group prisoners in Ukraine and despite facing an achingly empty and hopeless future they both remained loyal to Yevgeny Prigozhin. He had rescued them from prison, signing them up for his convict army to fight in Ukraine with the promise of money and freedom having fought. In short, they appeared to respect him.
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People carry a body bag away from the wreckage of a crashed private jet (AP)Prigozhin was a billionaire gangster whose arms dealing shady business deals war chest from Syria, across Africa all the way to Moscow is being dismantled as we speak. Much of it has been pilfered and ransacked by the FSB but there are claims Wagner loyalists, some in Belarus, want reprisals, despite Putin’s bloody message against their bosses.
Practically it seems the FSB have chopped off the head of the Wagner snake, killing Prigozhin, his deputy Dmitry Utkin, finance boss Valery Chekalov and others who served in Syria. But Putin and his Kremlin cronies now face a nail-biting wait to gauge the effect of the possible killing, two months after Wagner’s ill-fated “march on Moscow” rebellion.
It may be that the uprising had some support from others in Moscow - a backing that then faltered as Prigozhin and his men approached Moscow before fleeing for Belarus. Putin allowed Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko to broker a peace deal and many Wagnerites, along with their leader, became exiled in Belarus.
Yevgeny Prigozhin stands in front of multiple bodies in May 2023 (AP)Failing to read the writing on the walls Prigozhin’s thug tendencies persuaded him to think it was not time to shut up and hide - instead, he took vulgar selfies and flew in and out of Belarus and Russia. Putin waited for his moment and made his move but this a pivotal moment revealing Putin's vengeance-ridden psychopathy in its most vile form.
The poor con-combatant crew of the plane that was downed also died as casualties of Putin’s war to keep control of Russia. For 18 months he and his Kremlin cronies have bullied, lied and plotted to persuade the Russian people the war on Ukraine is justified, relying on their admiration for strongman politics.
But this may be a blood-soaked step too far, killing several non-combatants, including a flight attendant and two crew members. There are smoke and mirror rumours that Prigozhin had a contract on his head from Moscow's elite- possibly deflecting from Putin.
Either way, now only fear can protect Putin from being replaced as he looks increasingly vulnerable and Ukraine steps up its attacks inside Russia. Analysts suspect two S-300 ground-to-air defence missiles brought down the plane, which was registered to Wagner.
Others say a device was hidden in a wine crate. But the aftershock of this blatant hit on Wagner Group is all about messaging to others hoping to try and launch a mutiny.
Putin appears to care little about how the globe sees him as his world has shrunk into the corridors of the Kremlin with all of its intrigue and back-biting. It is doubtful this will not be the end of the blood-letting and Putin now has another headache - what to do with the surviving Wagner Group who are all over the world.
And how to control the many others who recognised Wagner Group as having for years done Putin’s grubby work for him. It was Wagner who under Prigozhin’s leadership gained ground in Bakhmut, Ukraine, increasingly showing up the regular army as incompetent.
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Prigozhin brought many millions into the Kremlin’s coffers in shady deals across several continents. But all of this failed to save him. Putin has sacked Andrei Surovikin, a former commander in Ukraine and Syria who is suspected of supporting the Wagner boss.
But so far he has not apparently had him killed. It is possible Putin is now swinging back to his conventional military, whilst deciding what to do with the Wagner remnants. But Russia’s military has proved relatively poorly- trained and badly led.
It may need to embed Wagnerites into its ranks - and Prigozhin loyalties may simmer away. This would cause dangerous fault lines throughout Putin’s military.
None of this is bad news for Ukraine’s counter-offensive as it further indicates that Russia’s chaotic military and political leadership increasingly looks like a paranoia-laced basket-case struggling to hold onto power.
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