29 February 2024 , 19:00
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The Kremlin has drawn up plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an invasion by enemies, including China, leaked military files reveal.
The 29 leaked files outline potential conditions for the use of nuclear weapons to achieve an array of offensive goals such as "containing states from using aggression … or escalating military conflicts", "stopping aggression", preventing Russian forces from losing battles or territory, and making Russia’s navy "more effective".
These files include details of wargames — war simulations often conducted for military strategic planning — and presentations for naval officers. One of the scenarios mentioned is where China invades Russia, resulting in Moscow deploying tactical nukes in a first-strike decision.
The files date from a decade or further back, but experts say they remain relevant to current Russian military doctrine. The documents have unveiled a deep-seated suspicion of China, despite the two brutish nations becoming close allies in the years since the plans were written.
The classified papers, which were seen by the Financial Times, describe a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted. Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the newspaper: "They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means."
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The FT reported that a spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin challenged the "authenticity" of the documents when asked about the nuclear files.
Yars, a Russian MIRV-equipped thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile in Moscow on a military parade (SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)"In one war game scenario, China pays fake protesters to clash with police in Russia's Far East, then sends saboteurs to covertly attack Russian security infrastructure. Once tensions reach a boiling point, China increases defence production and ominously deploys army units at the border as it accuses Russia of 'genocide", the FT reported.
Meanwhile, there are further, separate, reports that Putin could use chemical weapons on German cities if war with NATO breaks out. The Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, has issued a 14-page briefing paper to MPs, outlining a worst-case scenario in which Russia wages war on Berlin in four stages.
In the briefing paper, it said the risk of Moscow launching chemical attacks on Germany and stepping up threats to use nuclear weapons could not be ruled out. It also said: "Past experience in recent years shows that a potential aggressor may be prepared to use unconventional weapons. This was the case in Salisbury in 2018 and in Russia in 2020, where chemical attacks were carried out against individuals." It also stressed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had led to “a fundamental change in the security situation for Europe as a whole”, which called for closer scrutiny of Germany’s civil and national defence procedures.