Gaza issue could 'tacitly hand' election to Trump despite his 'weaknesses'
President Joe Biden's support of Israel could 'tacitly hand' the election to even as the Michigan Republican primaries revealed the former-President's weakness, experts have claimed.
Biden and Trump won the Michigan primaries on Tuesday, further solidifying the all-but-certain rematch between the two men. Despite the victories, early results from the state were highlighting some of their biggest political vulnerabilities ahead of the November .
Speaking to the Mirror, two experts in US politics gave their analysis of the latest political milestone in the 2024 elections.
Biden was met with an energetic campaign organised by activists angry with the President's handling of the war in Gaza. So far more than 10,000 people have pledged to remain 'uncommitted' in the election, the margin Trump won Michigan by in 2016.
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Many voters are shocked at Biden's stance on Israel (Getty Images)Warning about the impact this could have on Biden's campaign, Professor Inderjeet Parmar, head of the Department of International Politics at City, University of London, told The Mirror: "Biden’s support among younger voters and Muslim and Arab Americans is waning at this time, and the relatively large vote for ‘uncommitted’ in the Michigan primary suggests that’s an issue in the swing state. However: November is still a way off and the Gaza issue may well be ‘resolved’ by then, easing pressure on Biden.
"Secondly, when it comes to the actual election day, Democrats – including the young and Muslims are going to have to choose between the fear of an Islamophobic and anti-foreigner Trump presidency and anger at the Biden administration’s policy. It’s also possible that the issue could lead to significant numbers of voters staying home on Election Day, tacitly handing Michigan to Trump."
Attendees console each other during an "Uncommitted for Joe Biden" primary election night watch party at Adonis restaurant on February 27, 2024 in Dearborn, Michigan (Getty Images)Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. More than 310,000 residents are of Middle Eastern or North African ancestry. Nearly half of the Detroit suburb of Dearborn’s roughly 110,000 residents claim Arab ancestry.
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Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute and a professor of political science at Syracuse University, explained the Democrats are already "worried" about bleeding support of Gaza. He explained: "It won't produce votes for a Republican candidate, but it could dampen enthusiasm and turnout in the general election among younger voters and the Democratic Party's Left wing, as well as send some of those voters to the fringe candidates.
Nikki Haley has vowed to stay in the race (Getty Images)"In an election that's expected to be close, this could be significant. The irony is that if the ultimate effect of all this is to put a Republican in the White House, then these protestors will get something even further from their preferences."
A robust grassroots effort began just a few weeks ago to encourage voters to select “uncommitted” as a way to register objections to the death toll caused by Israel’s offensive. Nearly 30,000 people have died in Gaza, two-thirds of them women and children, according to Palestinian health officials.
Biden is floundering in the polls (Getty Images)As for Trump, he has now swept the first five states on the Republican primary calendar. But there were early signs that Trump was continuing to struggle with some influential voter blocs who have favoured former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in previous contests. Haley’s strongest performance Tuesday night came in areas with college towns like Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, and suburbs around Detroit and Grand Rapids.
Discussing the Michigan results, Professor Reeher said: "It continues the pattern of Trump victories we've seen so far, but it's worth noting the significant percentage of the Republican base (primary voters) who are selecting Haley, indicating some weakness in Trump's support. If Trump were a sitting incumbent, there would be panic in the party over these results.
Trump kissing a flag during CPAC (AFP via Getty Images)"It remains extremely unlikely that Trump will not achieve the nomination, but lightning could still strike. Something major would have to emerge in the coming days, however."
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