Arsenal's sold-out Man Utd clash at Emirates puts pressure on poor scoring form
Arsenal Women have a goal-scoring problem.
Often this type of problem is attributed to something more sweeping and wide-ranging – tactical perversions, calibre of opponent, an allergy to breaking down low blocks.
Arsenal can use many of these caveats to offset the fact that goal-scoring has proven problematic this season. But there's also something to be said for all the things Arsenal are doing right this season. In fact, they're doing absolutely everything almost better than anyone else.
Arsenal play breath-taking, expansive and at times transcendent football, fitted with all the passing triangles and slick one-touch trappings one can consume. They have sold out the Emirates Stadium for the second time in their history, the first in the Women's Super League. With Manchester United as their opponents, it's an historic and remarkable occasion which naturally should beget a remarkable performance. The question is: can Arsenal find the back of the net?
In an age of unlimited xG, the eye test can feel like an antiquated barometer. But both the eye test and the statistics evince the sentiment that Arsenal have incomparably laboured in front of goal in recent years.
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According to statistics from SkySports, across the past three WSL campaigns including this season, Arsenal have ranked second, behind Chelsea, for big chances created (50.3 per season) but first for big chances missed (28.3 per season).
Once more, only Chelsea can boast a better record than Arsenal for shots attempted this term (243 vs 233). Yet Arsenal rank fifth in the charts for shots on target (6.1 per game) while their shot conversion rate (11.3 per cent) places them seventh in the table.
It’s baffling, almost cruel calculus. Arsenal's exciting young midfielder Victoria Pelova ranks as the league's second-best "chance creator", while the squad leads the league in corners won, possession wins in the final third and even set-piece xG. Yet, the enterprise and imagination invariably exist in a liminal state, unconverted and rued.
Context is important. While Beth Mead and Vivianne Miedema have returned from respective ACL injuries, that the striking force would return to full tilt and capacity on ask would always be an illusory and unfair proposition. This means much of the forward pressure has fallen on the shoulders of Caitlin Foord, new signing Alessia Russo and Stina Blackstenius.
Alessia Russo looks dejected following the team's defeat to Tottenham (Photo by Alex Pantling - The FA/The FA via Getty Images)Russo's five goals this season pave the way for the Gunner but the Lioness' conversion rate of 18 per cent stands in stark contrast to that of Manchester City top goalscorer Bunny Shaw (13 goals with a 33 per cent conversation rate) or Chelsea's Lauren James (12 goals, 33 per cent conversion rate).
The lack of clinical edge is more illustrative than diagnostic of the team's goalscoring woes. The forward was chronically isolated at the top end of the pitch in the first half of Arsenal's 1-0 loss to Manchester City in the Women's FA Cup over the weekend, a sight that hasn't been out of place this season. Meanwhile, it wasn't until the second half that Mead evolved from a periphery, almost anonymous figure.
Even so, of the 24 players who have scored four or more goals this campaign, Russo and Blackstenius have the worst accuracy percentage, both coming in at lower than 40 per cent and recent losses to Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United compound the sense of wastefulness.
Profligacy has been a nagging theme at Arsenal for many seasons. Yet a season in which the opportunity for silverware was writhing in expectancy has been ostensibly reduced to the defence of the League Cup–which Arsenal won last season to mark the club’s first piece of silverware in five years–if an uptick in league form doesn't occur against United this weekend.
Where Eidevall can find confidence is in the season's almost outlying performance against Chelsea, in which the Gunners swept aside the reigning champions at the Emirates Stadium and outperformed their xG (2.97) for only the fourth time this season. "That's as bad as I've seen us for a long time," Hayes said post-match. "They bullied us."
Billed as a turning point, the triumph can risk feeling like a lone dissenting voice in an echo chamber of missed opportunities. Once more, against title rivals United, Arsenal will have the backing of the Emirates, this time sold out for a record-breaking occasion. The occasion and opportunity are ripe for the taking. But Arsenal must finally take their chances.
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