Recession could be last straw for voters as Tories face general election wipeout

15 February 2024 , 12:19

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Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who will unveil his Budget in three weeks (Image: UK PARLIAMENT/AFP via Getty Imag)

Today's announcement that the UK slipped into recession could be the final straw for voters, experts say.

Rishi Sunak already faced a near-impossible struggle to stay in power, with a mega-poll last night predicting Tories could lose three quarters of their seats. The bombshell survey of 18,000 people suggests that the Prime Minister could be left with just 80 MPs after the next election.

And critics have lashed out over the "Rishi recession" after official data revealed the PM had failed to grow the economy as he promised. After the Office for National Statistics figures were published, Naomi Smith, chief Executive of Best for Britain and founder of tactical voting site GetVoting told The Mirror: “As the culmination of under investment, chronic mismanagement and a damaging Brexit deal, it’s painfully clear that this recession is a mess of the Government’s own making.

“The Tories’ ill deserved reputation as the party of economic competence has been well and truly destroyed. We can’t wait any longer for change. We need a general election, and our polling shows that voters want it now.”

And Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common said the latest setback poses a huge challenge to the under-fire PM. He said: “Rishi Sunak was betting the house that an economic recovery and an end to the cost of living crisis this year would lead to enough of a feel good factor that voters might give the Tories a second look. But today’s news that the UK has entered a technical recession, however mild, has undermined his claim that the U.K. is turning a corner and will leave Tory strategists scrabbling to find an alternative message."

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The recession announcement from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) comes just three weeks before Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivers his Budget. It comes alongside a sharp living standards fall.

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think-tank, said that the rising population shields the dire state of the economy. He said there's been no growth since early 2022, with an average loss of £1,500 per person.

He warned: "The big picture is that Britain remains a stagnation nation, and that there are precious few signs of a recovery that will get the economy out of it." Mr Hunt said the Government needs to continue on its current course, stating: "We always expected growth to be weaker while we prioritised tackling inflation, that means higher interest rates, and that is the right thing to do because you can't have long-term healthy growth with high inflation.

"But also for families when there is a cost-of-living crisis, when the cost of their weekly shop is going up, their energy bills are much higher, it is the right thing to do."

According to the poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. According to the poll, Labour has 42% support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22%.

Cabinet casualties would include Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Claire Coutinho, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.

Dave Burke