Six Nations supercomputer rates England's chances with heavy favourite tipped

02 February 2024 , 07:00

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Ireland claimed the Grand Slam last year (Image: (Photo by Dan Mullan - RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images))

Ireland kick-off the Six Nations as defending champions and are tipped as heavy favourites to retain their crown.

Andy Farrell's men secured a Grand Slam last year, finishing it off with a win over England at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Despite a disappointing World Cup the Irish are a formidable outfit and, like they did in 2014 and 2015, have been backed to go back-to-back.

That is according to the algorithms from Grosvenor Sport, who think that Ireland have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations again. That makes them heavy favourites despite a fixture list that sees them travel to France and then Twickenham.

France, who will also have been underwhelmed with their showing at the World Cup, are firm second favourites for the Six Nations and are given a 31.5 per cent chance of success. That means the two leading contenders are 93 per cent likely to win the tournament.

Les Blues may fancy their chances given they get to host the Irish in Marseille on Friday night in what is a blockbuster beginning to the championship. Ireland have only won in France twice over the past 25 years and will begin the post-Johnny Sexton era.

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England meanwhile are an outside shot, according to the numbers, but are still given the third best chance. Their hopes of success stand at just 5.2 per cent with their semi-final appearance in the autumn perhaps a generous reflection of where the team are at.

There is pressure on head coach Steve Borthwick to expand his playing style with some fans becoming disillusioned with the team's tactics. Owen Farrell is no longer available for selection meaning George Ford or Marcus Smith will have to lead the team.

George Ford and Marcus Smith will fill the void left by Owen Farrell

A host of exciting young players though, including Exeter's Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Northampton's Fraser Dingwall, are included in the squad for the first time. England will play Wales and Ireland at home, travelling to France, Scotland and Italy, where they begin.

Scotland have been handed a 1.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. The Scots have never won the Six Nations but have one of the most talented squads they've ever had with Finn Russell pulling the strings. Wales have entered a major transition phase under Warren Gatland.

A host of their big name players have left the international set-up and, as a result, the supercomputer claims they've only got a 0.4 per cent change of winning. That is more than Italy though, who've been handed a zero per cent chance of claiming the trophy for the first time.

Samuel Meade