Premier League clubs have January transfer fears and it's not all about FFP
There is more chance of tumbleweed rolling across the TV screen than a blockbuster signing rocking up for a medical as Thursday night's deadline approaches.
Premier League clubs have been reluctant to open their wallets in a window that so far has been headlined by two players on either side of Manchester leaving on loan. And it is not difficult to see why the market has become stagnant.
Several are paralysed by the fear of breaking financial regulations that are, belatedly, being firmly enforced by the Premier League. The 10-point punishment handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest ’s charge has changed the approach, forcing several clubs on the border of breaking the £105m loss over three years limit to manage with what they have.
“The reality is the Everton judgment showed that there were teeth to the PSR regime,” Newcastle CEO Darren Eales said when after the club posted a £73.4million annual loss that led to a belief they will need to sell a star to remain within the rules. “I think that’s something that’s probably focused a lot of minds within the Premier League that this is something that’s real.”
But profit and sustainability rules are not the only reason for clubs standing still. To an extent England is correcting itself after last year’s bonanza, which in itself was skewed by Chelsea ’s kamikaze effort, and the Premier League is now appearing to bring itself in line with Europe’s big leagues.
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Entering the final day of the window, the net spend of Premier League clubs is hovering at around £50m. For context that was marginally less than the £53m recorded in the Covid-impacted 2021 window but the sense of idleness is exacerbated by the £650m spent a year ago. In 2022 the total was £175m and £180m in 2020 and the preceding two years before that a more modest £70m.
Or perhaps clubs are experiencing an overcorrection. Of the 15 deals worth £10m or more across Europe’s big five leagues at the time of writing, only Radu Dragusin’s £25m arrival at Tottenham from Genoa has come from the Premier League. Seven have been in Ligue 1, with two apiece in Serie A, La Liga and the Bundesliga and one from Saudi Arabia.
Another factor is how the Premier League itself has become two and a half competitions within the table. A belief from early in the season that the three promoted teams were likely to go straight back down has meant less desperation for those down the rankings, although the other teams threatened by demotion are also in financial predicaments so could not have spent significantly anyway.
Sean Dyche's Everton are facing another potential points deduction (Getty Images)As Everton manager Sean Dyche said: “It is a difficult window, not just for us. We’ve seen that with the amount of money spent compared to other windows.”
Above them are a cluster of teams neither at risk of relegation nor capable of challenging for the top. And the final consideration is how rare it is for settled teams competing for trophies looking to make major changes mid-season.
Some managers, including West Ham ’s David Moyes, have suggested part of the problem is clubs not being able to find the right players to improve their teams. “I believe all clubs are using this window to wait and see if the right players are out there,” he said. “But maybe the players are not available or available at the right price.”
Loan moves such as Kalvin Phillips joining West Ham and Jadon Sancho returning to Borussia Dortmund have been the dominant storylines of a quiet month with obligations and options to buy coming into effect in June. That will immediately boost the summer spend and to suggest this is a signal of the bubble being burst seems an exaggeration.
But this month has at least quietened the circus, something most fans should be grateful for.
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