Tory plotters look to by-elections as next chance to strike at Rishi Sunak
Tory plotters hoping to oust Rishi Sunak are looking to next month’s by-elections as their next opportunity to strike at his authority.
Losses in Wellingborough and Kingswood - especially if accompanied by a surge in support for the Reform Party - would spell further misery for the beleaguered PM.
A loosely-organised band of disgruntled Tories are looking to replace Mr Sunak, with most eyeing up either Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch or ex-Home Secretary Suella Braverman to replace him. Meanwhile Reform, formerly the Brexit Party, is gaining support from the right-wing rump of party members - many of whom are hoping for a dramatic return of Nigel Farage.
One prominent plotter told this newspaper next-month’s by-elections were seen as the next “big events” where failure could push the PM closer to toppling. Mr Sunak’s team will look to March’s Budget, hoping the promise of pre-election tax cuts will turn the party’s apocalyptic poll numbers around.
YouGov’s most recent voting intention poll put Labour on 47% - 27 points ahead of the Tories’ 20%. And the same poll had Reform on 13%, just seven points behind the party of government.
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Mr Sunak may take some comfort from an Ipsos UK poll on Friday finding there was no clear alternative to lead the Tories if he was ousted. His two closest contenders are currently ineligible to stand - Mr Farage and Boris Johnson.
Former minister Simon Clarke launched a scathing attack on Mr Sunak this week warning the Tories were set to hit an “iceberg” at the election unless he was replaced. But he appeared to be acting alone, with few Tory MPs publicly backing his intervention.
Meanwhile Westminster scrambled to identify a shadowy group of Tory donors that funded a mega-poll predicting electoral oblivion for the Tories under Mr Sunak’s leadership. The Conservative Britain Alliance (CBA), which has no website and no public profile, commissioned the £40,000 poll by YouGov using Tory peer Lord Frost as an “intermediary.”
And No10’s former pollster Will Dry said he’d quit Downing Street, admitting he’d drafted questions for the CBA poll. Mr Dry said he’d quit Downing the Conservatives are heading for "the most almighty of defeats" - and MPs "owe to the country" to reflect on who leads them.
It was reported this week that the Tory Lords whip ordered Lord Frost, a vocal critic of Mr Sunak, to reveal the identities of the donors behind the poll or lose the party whip. And the Electoral Commission is “monitoring” the group, which has not yet registered with the watchdog as a campaign group.
Meanwhile, a second splinter group fronted by former PM Liz Truss is set to launch its own bid to restore “democratic accountability” to the party. The failed ex-PM will speak at an event launching the Popular Conservatism group on Tuesday, February 6.
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