Whole of UK 'must prepare for conscription within 6 years', claims prof
The whole of the UK must prepare for conscription within six years unless Vladimir Putin is defeated, a world affairs expert has told the Mirror.
Downing Street was forced to rule out widespread military call ups after the head of the Army General Sir Patrick Sanders said British civilians would need to prepare to fight Russia in a future war. Under current Government proposals, it is predicted the number of fully-trained soldiers will be reduced to 72,500 from a commitment of 82,000 by next year.
He told the International Armoured Vehicles conference in Twickenham on Wednesday the Army would not be big enough to fight an all-out-war with the former Soviet nation even if it numbered 120,000. Gen Sir Patrick said we need a military that can expand rapidly and train and equip a citizen army, while a shift in mentality of the every day person is needed.
However, on the same day the PM's official spokesman said No 10 did not agree, adding: “The British military has a proud position of being a voluntary force. As I say, there’s no plan for conscription.”
The spokesman said it was unhelpful to debate whether Britain was strong enough to fight Russia. “I think these kinds of hypothetical scenarios, talking about a conflict, are not helpful and I don’t think it’s right to engage with them,” he said, adding that the Government had invested “significant sums into our Armed Forces”.
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Prof Anthony Glees, security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, told the Mirror General Sir Patrick is "absolutely right on this". He said: "The UK Government should plan to sign up volunteers now and over the next three years and 'the whole of the nation' should prepare for conscription within six years unless Putin were defeated."
Army General Sir Patrick Sanders (PA)
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps (PA)Last weekend, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps refused to say when a Tory pledge to raise defence spending will be met - despite saying the risk of war has increased. The Defence Secretary was challenged over whether the UK is ready for war, with defence spending below its target of 2.5% of GDP.
Asked when the UK will meet the target, he told the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg: "There is a trajectory upwards. I can't give you the exact date because we've always said it's as the economic conditions allow. But the point is we're working to a plan."
Prof Glees said it's "totally horrifying" the Ministry of Defence has "rubbished" Gen Sir Patrick's comments and said he's "puffing" AI, the internet and DragonFire - a British laser directed-energy weapon technology demonstrator - "instead of understanding the necessity of having a good supply of young men and women, eager to be trained for warfare".
He continued: "Beginning with what the General said, we then need to look at the gathering storm of war clouds over Europe and the world and so understand why he said what he said. Sir Patrick was insisting we need to do two things: first, to boost our regular army...to 120,000 by 2027 - i.e. very soon, to include our reserve and strategic reserve but that this would not be enough.
Anthony Glees, British historian and political scientist (DPA/PA Images)"We should be spending at least 2.5% of GDP on defence, 3% would be better. In fact we are spending far less, what Shapps calls 'comfortably more than 2%, but not 2.5% - Shapps refused to say how much we were spending right now. Secondly, Sir Patrick said the 120,000 would need to be augmented by a 'citizen army' which would have to be produced from a 'whole of nation' effort.
"The MoD shot down this suggestion at once, claiming it wasn't a call for conscription but just dangling the idea of a 'citizen volunteer' force in front of our eyes. I'm not entirely sure this is true. What Sir Patrick said is that we were in a 1937 moment - so two years before the outbreak of the last European war and four years before the outbreak of the Second World War."
Prof Glees said there was no conscription in 1937 but there was 'limited' conscription in May 1939, and by the end of 1939 1.5million men had been conscripted. He said: "I would see a 'limited conscription', a call-up of incentivised volunteers, as being very much on the cards if Putin is now thrown out of Ukraine. Obviously, if there were a wider European or world war conscription would follow at once.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)"Whilst it is true that our Trident nuclear submarine fleet deters Russia - or China, Iran and North Korea) from using nuclear weapons to fight a war with us, Putin's awful aggression against Ukraine shows that nukes did not, and do not, deter him from fighting a conventional war so that is what he's doing.
"This is why our armed forces are so vital. The situation in Europe is far more dangerous than many can see, not least politicians who think voters won't be happy about this in an election year." Prof Glees went on to say: "Putin thinks we Brits are weak and divided, just as Hitler said we were just a chicken whose neck could be wrung. By re-arming and re-building our woefully small armed forces we will show Putin he's got us entirely wrong.
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"Putin has repeatedly said he wants the post 1997 NATO states to be disarmed and brought back into the Russian orbit, re-creating the system of satellites that was the strategic policy of the USSR. Conventional warfighting can do this, he reasons." He said this is why Lord Cameron "is so right" to warn against '1930s appeasement', thinking, as Trump "clearly does", that if Putin is given Ukraine, "he'll go away and leave the rest of Europe alone".
Russian military troops taking part in a military drill on Sernovodsky polygon close to the Chechnya border (AFP via Getty Images)"There's not a snowball's chance in hell of Putin just going away," Prof Glees said. "Britain's national security has always, always depended on the security of continental Europe. Whether in the EU or out of the EU, engaged with Europe, or isolated from it, we've never been immune from events twenty miles away across the Channel.
"Indeed that is the nub of the matter. Short of Putin turning into a suicidal madman, he's never going to risk a nuclear war to destroy Ukraine because it would end up destroying him as well. But as he's seen, a conventional war is a different matter altogether. In 1937 as Lord Dannatt pointed out the UK was spending under 3% on defence and at that time we had an Empire to defend. By 1940 46% of the UK's GDP had to go on defence spending."
Gen Sir Patrick has previously said the Ukraine war "brutally" illustrates regular armies start wars but citizen armies win, to which Prof Glees said: "Exactly so." He continued: "He's bang to rights in pointing out that in order to do our best to ensure there is not general European war with Putin's Russia within the next 20 years - as Admiral Bauer, chair of NATO's Political Committee predicted the other day - we have to be able to deter Putin and his generals from starting a wider war.
"In other words, the UK Government should plan to sign up volunteers now and over the next three years and 'the whole of the nation' should prepare for conscription within six years unless Putin were defeated," he added.
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