Odds on US election and how they have changed after New Hampshire results

24 January 2024 , 13:22

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A repeat of the 2020 election with a showdown between Biden and Trump is looking more and more likely (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

As the field narrows in the Republican primary race, things have shifted when it comes to odds for the upcoming 60th presidential election, particularly after the New Hampshire primaries.

Donald Trump came out with 54.5 per cent of the votes in New Hampshire, gaining 11 delegates, while his now sole competitor Nikki Haley took 43.2 per cent of the votes, gaining eight delegates. It comes after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis decided to withdraw from the race, instead opting to endorse Trump for the Republican presidential candidate.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden came out on top as a write-in candidate. The latest results make a rematch in November between Trump and Biden more likely, with Biden even admitting the New Hampshire results make it clear he will face off against his 2020 rival once more.

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President Joe Biden came out on top as a write-in candidate for Democrats (AFP via Getty Images)

"My message to the country is the stakes could not be higher," warned Biden. "Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms - from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy - which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. Are all at stake."

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But how are the odds looking for those who have either put themselves forward as a presidential candidate, or who have had their name thrown into the race? Action Network shared the latest election odds, updated following Trump's success in the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Out of all the potential candidates, Trump currently leads the pack, with a 42.64 per cent chance of winning the election. Just over 10 per cent behind is incumbent Democrat Biden, who currently has a 31.01 per cent chance of winning.

Trump hit out at his Republican rival during his speech at the New Hampshire primaries (AFP via Getty Images)

Next up is a name not formally entered into the 2024 race for the White House - Michelle Obama. There have been rumours the former First Lady could throw her hat in the ring, potentially replacing President Biden for the Democrat bid. Currently, she's standing at a 5.02 per cent chance of winning the election.

For Trump's competitor Nikki Haley, things aren't looking so good with a 4.06 per cent chance of winning the election. It comes after Trump took aim at his rival in New Hampshire during his celebratory speech.

"This is not your typical victory speech, but let's not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night," Trump said. He complained Haley had come third in Iowa "and she's still hanging around", making his fury clear about the former UN Ambassador not dropping out.

Nikki Haley was attacked by Trump during his speech after winning the Republican New Hampshire primaries (AFP via Getty Images)

Criticising her further for failing to exit the race after Trump's New Hampshire win, he said: "You can't let people get away with bulls**t." But Trump failed to pivot attention to the general election, instead repeating his claims about the 2020 election and slamming those who voted for Haley, saying they only did so "'cause they want me to look as bad as possible".

The latest odds, updated after the New Hampshire primary, show that it is the first time Trump's chances to win the 2024 presidency have been even money or better. His odds have steadily improved over the autumn and into the winter and appear to be continuing on an upward trajectory.

Biden has also seen a slight bounce back. With an implied probability of a 31.01 per cent chance of Biden winning, it's an improvement from several months ago when Biden's implied probability to win the election dropped below 30 per cent for the first time.

Both Trump and Biden's odds rose steadily from January to June last year. But in June, Biden saw a slight dip in his chances of retaining the White House while Trump saw his chances skyrocket, widening the gap between the two frontrunners.

Fiona Leishman