Eddie Howe must avoid nightmares of Newcastle's past in crucial Sunderland test
It is the high emotion derby which makes heroes, sends managerial reputations soaring or plunging and defines the mood of a season.
But would a North East derby defeat change the mood around Eddie Howe's reign at Newcastle?
So far Howe has credit in the bank with fans and United’s ownership group led by Amanda Staveley, who remains fully supportive. But even he knows that almost two years of positivity and winning, climbing from a relegation fight to the top four, is under threat if results don’t turn.
This is a game that makes and breaks managers - most famously in 1999 when Toon boss Ruud Gullit dropped Alan Shearer and Duncan Ferguson from the starting 11. The team sheet, minus the club skipper and legend, was dubbed a “suicide note.”
Newcastle lost at home, and the Dutchman was finished… and so was his office door after Fergson smashed through it the next day. “Yes, we needed the services of a joiner,” the late chairman Freddy Shepherd told me.
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Most recently a derby defeat was one of Alan Pardew’s last acts. Adam Johnson scored a 90th minute winner on December 21, and under the cosh, Pardew quit for Crystal Palace.
Reputations are on the line, and if Howe doesn’t get a win, I fear the hugely supportive narrative around him will change. There are already a wavering few, legitimately questioning tactics which have seen United opened up easily on the break in recent games.
The Toon boss has been experiencing a difficult spell of late (PA)Although, I also think it is unlikely Newcastle will lose this one.
They have a vastly superior first XI, and are more powerful.. They’ve got to smother Sunderland early on and get a quick goal.
That would set up Howe for a revival after an awful two months including nine defeats in 13 games. A settling confidence booster ahead of tough games against Manchester City and Aston Villa.
I’d expect Howe to get at least the season in charge. A top seven finish is still very achievable, and that would be par for the course. Surely that would be good enough for him to stay much longer and reset, after a challenging campaign riddled with injury problems and extra games.
Can the Magpies make their Premier League class tell against the Championship side? (Getty Images)The Saudi owners want to “be No.1” and will be pushing for progress, but also have to accept profit and sustainability rules hold back Newcastle’s rebuild, and football isn’t an exact science and has ups and downs.
What is certain is this game will be fiercely fought over - the very least both squads will give.
The last 12 derby have seen 61 yellow cards and six red, most recently Fabrizio Coloccini and Chieck Tiote for Newcastle and Sunderland down to nine men drawing 1-1 on Tyneside in 2012, when Lee Catermole and Sessegnon walked.
Off the pitch, Howe will know peace could depend on a Toon win. A mini riot ensued - and a police horse famously punched by a Geordie fan - outside St James’ Park in April 2013. Sunderland had won 3-0 and Sunderland boss Paolo Di Canio did an inflammatory knee slide in front of the Toon dug out.
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No wonder 6,000 Toon fans have to travel to Sunderland - expect the traditional altering of street signs on the way to “Stadium of S***e” - by police escort in a convoy of buses.
The stakes are high, and Howe is the more likely manager to come away happy.
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