Full list of key elections as four billion people to go to the polls in 2024
This year could be one of exceptional political upheaval around the world, with 76 nations holding elections.
Their populations total 4 billion, around half of the world’s people. Eight of the planet’s 10 most populous countries – the United States, India, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Brazil – are among them. It has been heavily hinted that UK voters will also be called on, though technically Rishi Sunak could wait until January 2025.
Other countries dusting off their ballot boxes in 2024 include Taiwan, Rwanda, Finland, South Africa, Romania, Panama, Slovakia and, possibly, Ukraine. In addition, there are the elections to the European Parliament in May. The outcome of these contests will shape global politics for years. A Donald Trump win in the US would have implications for the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, for example. So here are the key elections, and why they matter.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky could still decide to go to the polls in March (Getty Images)Ukraine
Though elections are technically prohibited under martial law, President Volodymyr Zelensky could still decide to go to the polls in any case in March, as scheduled by Ukraine’s constitution. As with the military operation, victory is not guaranteed. Zelensky’s popularity is waning following the stalled summer offensive.
There are concerns about the direction of the war, allegations of corruption and resentment at the mandatory military conscription. Zelensky is under pressure from some Republicans in the United States to hold elections as a condition of further funding. He is also aware that delaying the polls would be a propaganda gift for Vladimir Putin. However, polls show the majority of Ukrainians believe the elections would be an unwelcome diversion when the country should be concentrating on the war. Allies also fear that political uncertainty in Kyiv could undermine the country’s capacity for resistance.
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Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party won last year’s Dutch election (AFP/Getty Images)EU
The UK may no longer take part in elections for the European Parliament but that does not mean they do not matter to this country. The polls provide a useful weather vane for political winds sweeping across the continent. There are fears this May’s elections will lead to far-right parties gaining more ground as they try to exploit immigration and Net Zero concerns.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, which has called for “Nexit”, won last year’s Dutch election. In France, Marine Le Pen is favourite to win the presidential poll, while the anti-EU Alternative for Germany party is second in Germany’s polls. The Brussels elections could provide them with a springboard to national success, putting a question mark over the whole EU project.
Supporters of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) carry a large Taiwan flag through a crowd (AFP)Taiwan
The future of US-Chinese relations hinges on the result of the elections in Taiwan this month. The island country of 24million people lives in the shadow of Beijing, which has laid claim to the land since 1949 and refuses to recognise its independence. Many fear that Russia’s invasion of neighbour Ukraine could presage similar action by China.
If voters stick with the ruling Democratic People’s Party, which has been prepared to stand up to Chinese intimidation, then it could increase tensions between China and the United States – President Joe Biden has warned the US is prepared to come to the defence of Taiwan if China were to invade. However, if Taiwanese voters opt for the opposition Kuomintang party, which backs eventual reunification with China, it is likely Beijing would dial down its belligerent rhetoric.
Donald Trump vies to return to power in the United States (Getty Images)United States
No other elections this year will be have more bearing on world events than November’s Presidential race. As it stands, the contest will be a re-run of the 2000 race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. However, this rests on Trump winning the Republican nomination and the outcome of numerous court cases against the former President.
At the moment the polls put the two candidates neck and neck. On the ballot paper will not just be who gets to govern the United States but the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and the future of Nato. Many Americans believe democracy is at stake were Trump to win a second turn.
A second Trump administration could use its political clout to muzzle the courts’ abilities to police the democratic process. As many as 50,000 civil servants could be sacked and replaced with political appointees. The Trump campaign is also drawing up plans to finish building the wall on the Mexico border, end the “war on fossil fuels,” scrap affordable healthcare, and put an end to automatic citizenship for anyone born in the US.
There are also fears Trump would follow through on the threat of his first term to quit Nato, and would cut all military funding for Ukraine. Under his America First agenda, new tariffs would be imposed on imports which would damage economies around the world, including the United Kingdom’s.
Vladimir Putin is likely to win Russia's election (Kremlin.ru/e2w)Russia
Spoiler alert: the outcome of the presidential election in March is not in doubt. Barring an unforeseen event, Vladimir Putin will win, keeping the 71-year-old in power until at least 2030. Victory is all but guaranteed, not least because most of his critics have either been jailed, such as opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who recently disappeared and reappeared in a harsher prison, or were assassinated, such as Alexander Litvinenko and Boris Nemtsov.
Putin has tightened his grip on power after the mutiny by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin died in mysterious circumstances when the plane he was in crashed in August. Putin is set to become the longest-serving Russian leader since Stalin. Victory would mean prolongation of the war in Ukraine, which is already testing the resolve of Kyiv’s Western allies. Putin has used the war to cement alliances with China and India as he attempts to sow divisions between countries in the southern hemisphere and Western nations. Another six years in power will allow him to further exploit global tensions.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media (Ravi Batra/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock)India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
Barring an unexpected upset, Narendra Modi is almost certain to win the India elections in April. Modi has already attracted criticism for his suppression of opponents and “persecution” of the country’s Muslim minority. There are fears he would use his third term to further cement his grip on power and undermine the country’s democratic safeguards.
In Pakistan, elections are meant to take place in February but it is not guaranteed they will take place having already been delayed twice before. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, an ex-cricketer and the most popular politician in the country, remains in jail on charges of corruption, which he denies. With Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in turmoil, the stage is set for the return of ex-PM Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif, back from exile, is the preferred candidate of the powerful military despite being disqualified for running for office for life. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, the longest-serving female prime minister, is expected to be a elected for a fourth time on January 7. It comes after the opposition party announced it was boycotting the elections in protest at the government’s alleged silencing of critics and jailing of opponents.
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