All the hurdles Keir Starmer must overcome in 2024 to seal Labour election win
Keir Starmer will get the chance to end Labour's almost 14-year spell in opposition as Britain enters a historic election year.
Over the past 12 months, the Labour leader has cemented a double-digit poll lead over Rishi Sunak's warring Tories - leading many to believe he is on course to be the next Prime Minister. The prospect of a majority Labour government is a remarkable transformation of the party's fortunes since 2019, when it won its fewest number of seats at a general election since 1935.
The exact timing of the next election is uncertain as the PM has the power to call it at any point until December. But Mr Starmer has said he is primed to go as early as May. His team, he says, has been on a "general election footing for some time".
The Labour leader has promised to pursue a "decade of national renewal" if he wins the keys to No10 - with five key missions for a Labour government. But he faces a number of hurdles and challenges before he can seal the deal.
Labour leader Keir Starmer (AFP via Getty Images)Looming by-elections
The Labour leader will be hoping to deliver an early first blow to Rishi Sunak in the New Year with at least one by-election on the horizon. Voters are likely to head to the ballot boxes in Wellingborough in February after the ex-Tory MP Peter Bone was kicked out of the Commons by his own constituents.
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The Tories last won the seat in 2019 with a huge majority of 18,540 and Labour will be aiming to replicate its stunning by-election victories of 2023, including overturning a majority of over 24,000 in Mid Bedfordshire after Nadine Dorries quit the Commons.
Labour figures have insisted they are "taking nothing for granted" in Wellingborough but expect them to pour resources into the fight to show they are on the march to Downing Street.
There could also be another fiercely fought by-election in Blackpool South after the MP Scott Benton was suspended for a "very serious" breach of Commons rules. Labour held the seat between 1997 and 2017 with ease - and could again given the party's considerable lead in the national polls.
Election manifesto
Work on Labour's blueprint for government will ramp up in the New Year as the party prepares for the prospect of a May general election. Mr Starmer's top advisers are said to have ordered members of the Shadow Cabinet to have policy ideas for the manifesto finalised by February 2024.
The Labour leader's five missions set out in January 2023 will form the bedrock of the manifesto - but vital details and so-called "retail" offers are yet to be set out. Decisions are expected to be thrashed out on issues such as the party's proposed reforms of the social care sector, taxation, and a promised "bold" national child poverty strategy.
But in 2023 there were major divisions in Labour's ranks over Mr Starmer's refusal to commit to scrapping the Tories' two-child benefit limit policy. The Labour leader may face further pressure over the issue from anti-poverty campaigners and his party's MPs and the election approaches.
The final version of the manifesto will be signed off at Labour's "Clause V" meeting - typically held during the general election campaign. Trade union representatives, senior party officials and members of Labour's governing body - the National Executive Committee (NEC) - will rubber stamp the document before it is published.
Row over £28billion green plan
One of the key conflicts likely to play out in Labour ranks in early 2024 is the commitment to invest £28billion-a-year in green jobs and industry. With the economy on the brink of a recession, some within the party want the pledge - already watered down - to be dropped or scaled back further to neutralise Tory attacks.
But others believe the plans to invest £28billion-a-year is an essential part of Labour's plan to grow the economy - one of Mr Starmer's five missions for a Labour Government. The left-wing Momentum group warned this month: "Instead of running scared of the party's own shadow, the Labour leadership should be embracing a transformative programme". It remains to be seen whether the flagship green pledge stands the test of time.
Mr Starmer will also face big decisions on public spending, with huge cuts pencilled in by the Tories for the post-election Parliament. In a recent speech hosted by the Resolution Foundation, the Labour leader insisted his party always "invests in public services" - but would not turn on the spending taps immediately after winning power due to the bleak economic backdrop. He dodged saying whether he would stick with existing plans for deep cuts to government departments. He will have to provide a response in 2024.
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the £28billion plan in 2021 (Getty Images)Pressure over stance on Israel-Gaza conflict
The devastating conflict in the Middle East led to the resignations of dozens of Labour councillors and the biggest rebellion of Mr Starmer's leadership so far. Almost 60 Labour MPs - including eight shadow ministers - defied the party whip to back a motion demanding a ceasefire in Gaza in November.
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At the time Labour was calling for "humanitarian pauses" - but just before Christmas Mr Starmer said the world must "work for a sustained ceasefire". Mr Starmer also said he wanted the party to "move forward as united as we can be" - but added his attention was on "innocent civilians and children that are dying in Gaza".
According to the territory's health ministry, the conflict has already claimed the lives of over 21,500 people. With the Israeli bombardment of Gaza continuing and the displacement of tens of thousands of Palestinian people, the party will face further pressure over its position and rhetoric towards Israel in the coming weeks and months.
Personal attacks from the Tories
As the general election grows closer, expect things to get dirtier. The Tories are already digging into Mr Starmer's time as a human rights lawyer and his role as Director of Public Prosecutions for hostile stories placed with right-wing newspapers and attack adverts.
Last year, Boris Johnson, who was facing political pressure over the Partygate scandal, attempted to falsely claim the Labour leader failed to prosecute Jimmy Saville. The saga offers a glimpse of how the Tories plan to conduct their election campaign, with many observers expecting one of the ugliest battles in recent history.
Tory HQ has reportedly drawn up an attack dossier while Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft's upcoming book 'Red Knight' is also expected to delved into his cases he was involved with But Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is also digging into Mr Starmer's previous career to rebut possible Tory attacks.
Local elections
If Rishi Sunak swerves a spring election and decides to go to the polls in the autumn or winter of 2024, the local elections will still go ahead as planned in May.
In 2023 the Tories out-performed worse expectations, losing over 1,000 councils seats across the country while Labour became the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002. A repeat of such a devastating loss of councillors would deliver a blow to morale and only add to the narrative the Conservatives are heading towards opposition.
Mr Starmer, who is expected to hold public Q&A style events between January and March across the country, will be hoping for significant Labour gains. The local elections will also coincide with key mayoral battles between Labour and the Tories, including London, Tees Valley, the West Midlands and the Liverpool City Region.
Labour conference
Labour's annual conference in 2024 could be a victory lap for Mr Starmer if he storms to power in a spring election. An autumn election meanwhile could allow time for the party conference season in late September or early October - the last big event before the short election campaign.
Typically lasting around four days, the conferences allow activists to gather and provide a major cash boost for both Labour and the Tories. But there will undoubtedly be questions over whether the event should be scaled back to a one-day affair, or scrapped altogether. While providing a major opportunity for Mr Starmer to address his party and country, insiders may decide visiting marginal constituencies and speaking to voters directly is more worthwhile.
Keir Starmer's glitter encounter at Labour conference in 2023 (Getty Images)Candidate selections
Selections for candidates in seats where Labour has no current MP are expected to ramp up in the coming weeks. Applications are said to have already opened in 211 "non-battleground" seats - a third of all constituencies - and will close on January 10.
But the issue of who Labour will pick to fight for the party in Islington North remains- after Jeremy Corbyn was blocked from standing again. The former Labour leader, who has had the whip suspended since 2020, is yet to announce whether he will stand as an independent candidate in the area he has served since 1983. If Mr Corbyn does stand it sets the scene for an ugly battle in a traditionally safe Labour seat.
Question marks also remain over the future of fellow left-winger Diane Abbott, who had the Labour whip removed in April over a racism letter in the Observer. The first black female MP - representing Hackney North and Stoke Newington since 1987 -accused the party earlier this year of a "fraudulent" investigation into her comments. Labour is still investigating the case but will have to reach a conclusion on whether she can represent the party at the next election in the coming months.
Jeremy Corbyn is yet to decide whether to run against Labour as an independent candidate (TIM ANDERSON)General election
The final act of Mr Starmer's time in opposition will come when the PM calls the election - kicking off at least a five-week intense campaign for the keys to No10. Just before Christmas the Labour leader said his team has been on a "general election footing for some time" and was primed for a vote as soon as May.
When the vote is called, he will finally be given the chance to end almost 14 years of Tory rule. There will be major moments, including a possible televised head-to-head debate with Rishi Sunak and Labour's manifesto launch.
But election campaigns are full of potential pitfalls - just think back to Theresa May's ill-fated 2017 election gamble. The former Tory leader entered the campaign against Jeremy Corbyn with a massive poll lead but after a series of missteps - including the infamous U-turn on the "dementia tax" - she ended up losing the Tories' slim majority at the ballot box and her authority never recovered.
Labour figures will be using the coming months to map out the party's election campaign ensuring all the policies are costed and polled.
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