What England need vs Scotland to qualify for the Nations League semi-finals
England's hopes of reaching the inaugural Women's Nations League semi-finals were salvaged by Ella Toone’s last-ditch winner over the Netherlands in their penultimate group match on Friday night.
That sets up a final-day scenario where the Lionesses not only need to win big against their fierce rivals, but hope for some help elsewhere. If that happens, not only will they make the knockout stages, but also keep alive Team GB's hopes of reaching next summer's Olympic Games in Paris.
As the nominated nation, England must reach the Nations League final, or finish third if Olympic hosts France reach the final. That means only top spot of Group A1 will be good enough.
Defeating Scotland at Hampden Park while seeing the Netherlands, who sit top of Group A1 on goal difference, drop points against Belgium would secure a top finish.
If the Netherlands defeat Belgium, however, the permutations become more complex. Because England beat the Netherlands by a lone goal on Friday evening at Wembley, they now must hand Scotland a sufficiently large enough defeat to eclipse the goal difference of the Dutch (England trail by three) if they are to secure passage to the next stage.
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Therefore, should the Netherlands beat Belgium 1-0, the Lionesses would then need to beat Scotland by four goals to advance on goals scored.
If England had defeated the Dutch by a two-goal margin or greater, qualification would have remained in England’s control and would have bettered their head-to-head record with the Dutch, meaning a victory by any margin over Scotland would have been enough.
Rachel Daly and Ella Toone celebrate as England fought back to beat the Netherlands (Hollandse Hoogte/REX/Shutterstock)With Scotland - who are bottom of the group with two points - set to potentially benefit from a heavy defeat, questions raised over the integrity of the fixture have been raised. However, Wiegman, who will take charge of Team GB should qualification be secured, insisted that Scotland’s fervour to win, especially on home soil, would be as fierce as ever.
"I understand those conversations," she said ahead of Tuesday's clash. "But if you have seen our group, if you have seen Scotland (performances) and if you know the history between Scotland and England, there's no way they are going to give away this game.
"They really want to beat England. And we really want to beat them of course. There is such a rivalry, that this is not going to be the case. We saw that in England (the first game) and that is what it is going to be."
The inaugural Nations League campaign has proven a mixed bag for the Lionesses off the back of a long and ultimately heart-breaking summer in Australia and New Zealand, but victory over Scotland would keep the spark of Olympic hopes alive.
England face Scotland tonight with kick-off at 7:45pm at Hampden Park.
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