Sergio Perez's F1 2024 fate is clear - although Red Bull's patience will be thin

07 November 2023 , 07:00

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Sergio Perez must hit the ground running for Red Bull in 2024 – and consistently deliver (Image: Getty Images)

Barring an extraordinary turn of events in the final two races, Sergio Perez will finish as runner-up to Max Verstappen this year.

Fourth place at the Brazilian Grand Prix was not enough for him to make it mathematically certain. And the same would have been true if he had got the better of Fernando Alonso in their swashbuckling duel over the final two laps.

But his 32 point buffer over Lewis Hamilton is surely enough to get the job done. The seven-time world champion will need back-to-back podiums – at least one of them on the second step – and for Perez not to score at all to overturn the deficit now.

The truth remains that Perez should have got the job done a long time ago. He's had a miles better car at his disposal all year and the fact alone Verstappen has more than double the same number of points is evidence enough that the Mexican has not delivered what he should have this year.

But it was the best version of the 33-year-old that we've seen for some time. Ninth on the grid does not look good on paper but the sudden storm that swept through Sao Paulo at the end of qualifying is significant mitigation. To come within a tenth of a second of the podium in the end in a performance complete with some very nice overtaking was encouraging for Perez.

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Regardless of speculation, Perez's place on the 2024 grid with Red Bull is not contingent on whether or not he finished second in the championship. Nevertheless, securing that spot will do him no harm in that regard.

And to be clear, only a significant change of plans for the team will lead to a situation in which Verstappen is partnered by anyone other than Perez in Bahrain next February. Christian Horner has never publicly wavered on his intention to honour the contract they have for the 2024 campaign.

But even if Perez does start next season as a Red Bull driver, as is expected, there is no guarantee that he will finish it that way. He will have to do a better job across the year than he has managed this season, particularly if there is a more competitive title race.

Red Bull only needed Verstappen on song this year to win the constructors' title – the champion has over 100 more points than ever other team on his own. And that dominance allowed Horner's squad to switch development focus to next year's car earlier than their rivals, giving them the chance to build another significant advantage.

It's not enough to say Perez needs to hit the ground running in 2024 – he did that this year with two wins from the first four Grands Prix. He must find consistency over the course of a full campaign and, most importantly, prove that he is capable of withstanding the pressure that comes with his seat without crumbling in the way he did this term.

Perez has this season shown that he can struggle to deliver when driving a car that's expected to win. He will need to change that view of him next season, or Red Bull will have little hesitation about replacing him with Daniel Ricciardo.

Daniel Moxon