Ex-Met chief analyses everything we know about mum who disappeared on dog walk
Nicola Bulley vanished while out on a dog walk along the River Wyre last Friday after dropping her two daughters at school.
The 45-year-old mum's springer spaniel Willow was found wandering alone on a towpath in St Michaels on Wyre, with her phone still logged into a work conference call on a nearby bench.
Police launched a major search operation and have been scouring the depths of the stretch of water for miles down towards the coast.
Lancashire Police do not believe her disappearance is suspicious and Superintendent Sally Riley today told a press briefing they are working off the hypothesis Nicola accidentally fell into the water.
Peter Kirkham is a regular contributor to the Mirror and a former Met Detective Chief Inspector - here's his analysis.
Nicola Bulley's children 'cried their eyes out' after being told 'mummy's lost'
What do we know seven days in?
Former murder detective Peter Kirkham (MDM)Nicola has been missing a week.
At this stage in any unsolved major investigation officers will be reviewing what is known and checking nothing has been overlooked.
So what is reliably known?
Nicola dropped her daughters at school in St Michaels on Wyre on Friday morning as normal.
She then took her dog, Willow, for a walk along the path by the River Wyre, as she often did, leaving her car in the school car park.
At 9.01am she joined a work “Teams” meeting though it is believed she did not actively participate. The meeting finished at 9.30am but she did not log out.
Over the next fifteen minutes two apparently reliable witnesses saw her on the path by the river, with her dog.
At about 9.35am her dog was found, running loose and “agitated”, by a bench on the river path. Her phone (still logged in to the “Teams” meeting) and the dog’s lead and harness were on the bench.
Hypotheses
Nicola Bulley disappeared during a dog walk (Lancashire Constabulary / SWNS.C)Nothing can be definitively ruled in or out. But some theories are more likely than others:
Abduction – unlikely as few buildings nearby and not possible to access path area easily with vehicle.
Mum appeared 'completely normal' moments before vanishing while walking dog
Self-harm – unlikely as no apparent history suggesting it and no trace of her found (unless it involved the river).
Mental breakdown / amnesia / deliberate disappearance – again unlikely as there is no apparent history or reason and no trace of her leaving the area.
Accident – most obvious hazard is the river which has fairly steep banks.
Of these my most favoured hypothesis by far (on basis of what is known publicly) is accident – somehow she has ended up in the river.
It seems police favour this theory too, as they increasingly focus on searching the river.
Enquiries
Nicola Bulley's last journey before vanishing (Lancashire Police)“She seems to have vanished in to thin air” pretty much sums it up.
Despite the fact there is only a window of about 25 minutes still to fill, there are very few enquiries the police can pursue to fill them.
It is a remote area and there would be few witnesses. Two have already been found. It is unlikely there are more.
There is very limited CCTV coverage of use.
Scene examination – the bench is the only focus at present and it is unlikely to yield much, if any, useful trace evidence.
Phone and other technical enquiries – calls and messages in that 25 minute window may add details for police.
Searches – police have searched the immediate area and are now extending that search downstream in the river. Basically they are looking for Nicola or her body. Other than that, it seems her clothing is the only available focus.
The dog
Nicola had been out walking this dog Willow (Facebook)
Willow was not wet when found wandering alone (Dave Nelson)For me, the key issue involves her dog, Willow. It is known she was with the dog around the bench area.
Willow’s harness and lead had been taken off but it seems likely the dog was allowed to run free, given the nature of the area.
If the dog was aware that Nicola was leaving (or being taken from) the area it is very likely it would have followed. But it remained by the bench suggesting Nicola suddenly disappeared from the landscape.
The most likely explanation for this would be her going in to the river, which is several feet below the level of the path and the eye-line of a dog.
Next steps
Nicola with long-term boyfriend Paul Ansell (Facebook)
Paul has been involved in the search effortsThe police will be continuing all lines of enquiry but the only one with any realistic hope of rapidly progressing the investigation is searching for Nicola.
If she did end up in the river, it could be days or weeks before she is found as the river at that point is tidal, which means there are flows in each direction at different times of each day.
A second line of enquiry which will be being pursued vigorously involves the background of Nicola and her family.
It is an old, but valid, adage that says if you wish to know how someone came to disappear or die, then find out how they lived.
Investigating the personal relationships of the missing person in cases like this is extremely sensitive but it must be done as quickly as possible.
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