09 July 2023 , 18:10
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What if the cost of living crisis eases and the British economy finally climbs off its death bed? What if Labour fails to win July 20’s Uxbridge and Selby by-elections and the Libs fail to grab Somerton?
What if Rishi Sunak eventually scores a couple of his five own goals? What if grabbing Chancellor Jeremy Hunt buys votes with tax bribes?
What it Tories inflame every knuckle-dragging nationalist reactionary bigot? What if polls narrow so Conservatives portray themselves as resurrection kids?
What if Keir Starmer’s caution fails to excite folk? That’s a lot of “What ifs?”, granted, and Tories who couldn’t run a bath would need them all to actually happen to be in with a shout.
Yet a certain dread lurks within increasingly optimistic Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers. Haunted by ghosts of Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Ed Miliband in 2010, defeat snatched from the jaws of victory is their nightmare.
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Three of Starmer’s frontline team grimaced, went pale and trembled when I asked them about the possibility of not winning the election.
Overturning 20,000 by-election majorities isn’t easy and Labour leads up to 20% will fall when even Blair in the 1997 landslide was “only” 12.5% ahead.
The Labour paranoia explains the manic financial bomb-proofing and defusing of explosive policies. The downside is a reduced offer and hostility to everything from a £15 minimum wage and free school meals for all to life-saving NHS big cash injections and fairer taxes, including the equalising of lower capital gains with income, to collect £37billion.
Financed by tax dodgers and rich vested interests, Tories will fight dirty and won’t go quietly into the night.
My fear is Labour’s caution is a risk, largely relying on the Conservatives to beat themselves and to be fair the incompetent, sleazy UK misgoverning Tory Government is doing a good job on that score.
Starmer’s rattling No 10’s gates, itself a remarkable achievement after inheriting a party with its fewest MPs since 1935. But requiring a swing as large as Blair’s in ’97 to secure a bare majority calls for more than safety first.
Fortune favours the bold. What if Labour did lose again? Resurgent, angry and emboldened Tories would take their revenge. Starmer must know he’d never be forgiven. He too would be a ghost, haunting future generations.