17 October 2024 , 11:30
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Analysts suggest proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen fighting hidden conflict could be targets for Israel as it considers retaliation against Tehran
Iran-linked militias in Iraq have launched about 40 attacks involving missiles, drones or rockets on Israel in the past two and a half weeks, the latest escalation in a largely clandestine proxy battle fought across a swath of the Middle East.
The attacks began in October last year when the war in Gaza started, but data compiled by the Washington Institute, a US-based thinktank, shows a sharp increase in their pace after Israel killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike on 27 September.
Hezbollah, which was founded with Iranian sponsorship in Lebanon more than 40 years ago, is the keystone of the loose coalition of militant groups created by Iran over recent decades.
With Hamas significantly weakened after a year of war in Gaza, and Hezbollah now reeling under a continuing Israeli air and ground offensive in Lebanon, Tehran has looked to more junior members of the rough coalition of factions it has supported across the Middle East to strike its arch-enemy.
“The number of missiles and drones being fired from Iraq [at Israel] has gone through the roof. They’ve moved into a higher gear to demonstrate their support for Hezbollah,” said Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute who follows the activities of militias based in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The missile launches from Iraq underline Iran’s strategy of using members of its “axis of resistance” to support one another against Israel, as well as competition between the factions.
“The [militia in Iraq] are not as capable as Hezbollah and not as mad as the Houthis, so are kind of worried about being outshone by the other guys in the axis,” Knights said.
Analysts suggest Iran’s proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, from where the Houthi militia has fired missiles at Israel while also attacking shipping in the Red Sea, are all potential targets for Israel as policymakers there decide on retaliation to the 1 October launch by Iran of 180 ballistic missiles targeting Israel.
Israel has launched dozens of airstrikes and at least one major ground assault by commandos in Syria over the last year. Militant groups there backed by Iran also seek to expand and protect crucial supply routes that allow to Iran to send supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A pager explodes in a greengrocer’s on 17 September, at the same time as hundreds of others in Lebanon and Syria, in an attack on Hezbollah. Photograph: Balkis Press/ABACA/Rex/Shutterstock
When thousands of pagers issued by Hezbollah to members detonated last month in what is widely believed to be an Israeli sabotage operation, injuries were reported across Syria and in Yemen, as well as Lebanon. Some reports suggested up to 40 people were killed or injured in Yemen.
Kirsten Fontenrose, an expert at the Atlantic Council thinktank, described the pager explosions as a “momentary flash of light on a dark network map”.
“The spontaneous combustion of Hezbollah communications equipment is helping intelligence communities around the world map the relationships and reach of a US-designated terrorist organisation with global reach – across Lebanon into Syria and Yemen,” Fontenrose wrote.
In one Israeli operation last month, special forces mounted a raid on a reported weapons production installation linked to Iran in Masyaf, in western Syria close to the Lebanese border. The troops were reported to have attacked underground facilities, destroyed equipment and seized key documents and data.
Israel, which has carried out strikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria for years, has increased its raids since the 7 October 2023 attack by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas into southern Israel.
Aftermath of an Israeli airstrike in the Mezzah suburb, west of the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 9 October. Photograph: Firas Makdesi/Reuters
Recent Israeli strikes have targeted an industrial site in the Syrian city of Homs, a warehouse near the port of Latakia, a military site in the countryside near Hama and a residential building in the Mezzah suburb of western Damascus. That attack reportedly killed Nasrallah’s son-in-law Hassan Jaafar al-Qasir.
An Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April killed a senior commander in the al-Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, his deputy and several long-serving diplomats. Iran retaliated with a massive missile and drone attack on Israel.
So far Israel has not launched strikes in Iraq but has targeted its Iraqi enemies in Syria, including leaders of the Iran-backed loose coalition of armed factions calling itself the Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI). The IRI, which was founded weeks after the Gaza conflict began, claimed responsibility for attacks targeting Israel and US forces based in Iraq and Syria between October and June.
Syrian militia killed three US service personnel and injured 30 with a drone strike into Jordan in January. Days later, US warplanes attacked more than 85 targets in seven facilities that the Pentagon said were used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The targets included command and control centres, intelligence facilities and weapons storage facilities used by the militias to attack US and coalition forces, according to a Department of Defense statement.
Members of the Iraqi Shia Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) at a funeral procession in Baghdad in February, carrying images of their comrades killed in US airstrikes. Photograph: Ahmed Jalil/EPA
After the IRI fired on Eilat in September, an Israeli drone strike killed an IRI commander near Damascus airport. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesperson, said Israel was tracking the threat from Iraq and would “do whatever is necessary to deal with the situation”.
In a sign of closer collaboration between the two proxies, the IRI has been working with the Houthis, who have recently increased their presence in Iraq. A US strike in July south of Baghdad killed a mid-level Houthi commander alongside four Iraqi militia members, and the Houthis are thought to have stakes in a network of lucrative businesses in Baghdad.
Israel has struck Yemen directly twice, destroying oil storage facilities and power stations in what appeared to be a warning to Iran. The most recent raid caused 62 civilian casualties, according to the Yemen Data Project, a watchdog.
The conflict in Iraq and Syria has received little attention from media and policymakers. Knights said: “Every big war has its forgotten corners.”