02 October 2024 , 16:28
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Grasping the prospect of a war between two of the Middle East’s strongest militaries is a challenging task for most people.
But just looking at the numbers for their armies and weapons can give people a rough idea of which side might have an edge.
As Israel and Iran launch missile after missile and send troop after troop, fears that the longtime adversaries may descend into a war are on the rise.
Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, has faced a reckoning after Israel assassinated several of its leaders as it invaded southern Lebanon.
Iran fired almost 180 barrage ballistic missiles into Israel last night in what the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps said was retaliation for killings of members of Hezbollah and Hamas, which governs Gaza.
While most were intercepted by the country’s air defence system, some missiles fell into southern and central Israel.
‘Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,’ Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
With the pair on war footing, how do the militaries of Israel and Iran compare?
Manpower
The Global Firepower index (GFP) grades the military strength and capabilities of every military in the world.
Iran is higher than Israel on the index, at 14 and 17 out of 145 respectively. For perspective, the US, Russia and China are the top three.
GFP says there are a fair few reasons why Iran outclasses Israel, and their respective manpower is one of them.
Israel’s population is a little over 9.4 million, according to 2023 census estimates. Iran, meanwhile, has nearly 10 times more than that at 88,550,000.
Both nations have their strengths and weaknesses (Picture: Emily Manley/Metro.co.uk)
The death of the leader of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, and late Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, has shaken Iran (Picture: Rouzbeh Fouladi/ZUMA Press Wire/)
This is also reflected in their armies. Iran’s armed forces are among the largest in West Asia, with 610,000 active-duty personnel and about 350,000 trained reserve personnel divided between the Iran Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Indeed, the corps is an army within an army. Iran also has a network of proxy allies, including the Houthi militia in Tmen and Iraq’s Shiite forces, often called the ‘Axis of Resistance’.
Israel has hundreds of thousands fewer people to call on. IDF figures put the number of active military personnel in the army, navy and paramilitary at 169,500. About 465,000 are in reserves, which is 115,000 more than Iran.
Defence spending
Tel Aviv is a big spender when it comes to defence. GFP’s number-crunching reveals that Israel’s defence budget is roughly £18,066,840,000 whereas Iran’s is a comparatively measly £7,500,000,000.
Tehran might not have Israel’s budget – Western sanctions certainly don’t help – but Iran doesn’t rely on state cash as much, the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) says.
‘The military establishment controls [one-fifth] of the market value of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and owns thousands of other companies, all of which generate revenue for the armed forces,’ the FDD says.
‘Additionally, the IRGC controls a significant portion of Iran’s underground economy.’
Weapons
Where does all this money go? Weapons for one.
Israel has had nuclear weapons to hand since the 1960s, though has never exactly been honest about that. The Nuclear Threat Initiative estimates the nation has 90 nuclear warheads, with enough nuclear material to make up to 300.
Iran also has the means to build nuclear weapons, the Arms Control Association says, and as much as officials have longed denied they’d ever push the button, they are considering tinkering with their nuclear doctrine if their security is further threatened.
Israel’s tanks tend to be top-of-the-line (Picture: Reuters)
Tension between the Middle Eastern giants comes amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in which Israel has killed more than 41,600 people (Picture: Reuters)
Some war analysts say an armed conflict between Israel and Iran would be a battle fought largely in the air (Picture: Metro.co.uk)
Tehran, however, has an almost incomparable missile arsenal. From anti-ship missiles and cruise missiles to ballistic missiles with ranges of about 1,200 miles, these weapons can easily strike Israel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Analysts say the nation has the most developed short- and medium-range missile system in the region.
The country has never exactly shied away from showing this stockpile off, with troves of drones and missiles often wheeled out during military parades – Russia often uses Iran-made drones in its war in Ukraine.
On land and air power, Iran often has the quantity while Israel has the quality.
Iran easily has more tanks than Israel – the former’s fleet of nearly 2,000 compared to Israel’s 1,400, a difference of 630, the GPF ranking says.
As much as Tehran’s tanks are large in number, they are made up mostly of old creaky models that don’t really compare to modern models. Israel’s are far more advanced – for one, there’s the powerful and hard-to-det Merkava, the IDF’s go-to battle tank.
Iran also has more than 22,000 armoured vehicles trundling along than Israel, at roughly 65,800 and 43,400 respectively.
Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have proved to be a tinder box moment that could ignite further conflict (Picture: Emily Manley / Metro.co.uk
Iran has the edge on Israel when it comes to missiles (Picture: Reuters)
Iran launched a barrage of missiles on Israel last night (Picture: AFP)
Up in the air, however, it’s a whole other ball game. The Iranian Air Force’s trove of 551 aircraft lags behind its Israeli counterpart’s 612 stockpile.
Similar to the tanks, Israel’s aircraft are slightly shinier than Iran’s, including modern fighter aircraft like F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s, trade magazine Flight International says.
Neither nation has much of a naval presence if the rank is any indication. Tehran’s fleet strength is 101 compared to 67 and has 19 submarines to only five for Israel.
But tanks and soldier counts might not even matter for a rather simple reason – geography.
Iran is colossal in comparison to Israel – Jersulaen is about 1,149 miles away from Tehran – and the two states are separated by countries such as Iraq.
Aviation and missiles, therefore, will play a large role – and either side has something that one-ups the other.
‘In fact, a conflict would not take the form of a classic war, but would rather be an exchange of blows over long distances,’ one expert told DW.