24 August 2023 , 12:39
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Yevgeny Prigozhin's apparent death in a fiery plane crash reveals the chaos internally in Russia with a civil war not impossible, an expert has claimed.
The mysterious plane crash that is said to have killed Wagner Group founder Prigozhin has laid bare the "internal chaos" plaguing Vladimir Putin's Russia and civil war could be close.
Prigozhin, a close Putin ally who led the notorious mercenary group that has played a key role in the Ukraine war, was listed as a passenger on the plane that crashed Thursday night north-west of Moscow, according to Russian authorities. All eight passengers and two crew members were killed.
The Kremlin and Putin have remained silent on the incident. However, US President Joe Biden suggested Putin may have orchestrated Prigozhin's demise, saying: "I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."
When Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner troops launched their insurrection two months ago, Vladimir Putin made his feelings clear calling it "treachery" and a "stab in the back" of Russia. He promised that the perpetrators would be punished.
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Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin who led a failed uprising against the Kremlin (Razgruzka_Vagnera/UPI/REX/Shutterstock)According to Valeriy Akimenko, Senior Research Associate at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, the elaborate nature of Prigozhin's apparent assassination by plane crash indicates the Kremlin may be sending a message about who is in charge.
He told The Mirror: "The intriguing bit to me is that he was shot down - very elaborate revenge. Even if he’s still alive, Kremlin propaganda can lie its way even out of that. But it shows it’ll stop at nothing to shut him down."
He added: "Wagner is down and out, it seems, but the whole saga smacks of internal chaos in Putin’s Russia, despite its facade of control. A kind of Potyomkin village for external consumption."
The plane crashed into a field after falling from the sky (TELEGRAM/ @grey_zone/AFP via Get)With opposition to Putin's flailing war growing and power struggles emerging between security forces, Valeriy believes the conditions could make armed internal conflict possible. He said: "Civil war at the behest of a mafia-style bunch of folks is more South American than Russian, but not impossible," he said.
Russian aviation officials confirmed the aircraft, an Embraer Legacy, had been flying between Moscow and St Petersburg when it crashed in the Tver region, north of Moscow on Wednesday evening. According to preliminary information, all 10 people on board were killed. All the bodies are said to have been recovered. But there have been no confirmations yet on whether Prigozhin’s body has been found.
Prigozhin, right, with Vladimir Putin back in 2010 (SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)Since his short-lived mutiny against Russia's top military commanders, whom he had repeatedly criticised for their strategy in Ukraine, Prigozhin had kept a relatively low profile. Under a deal to end the rebellion, charges against him were dropped on the understanding that he relocate to Belarus.
He appeared to do so when, in mid-July, a video appeared on Telegram channels that appeared to show Prigozhin welcoming fighters in Belarus. But later that month, he was photographed in the Russian city of St Petersburg during the Africa-Russia summit.
In the past week, Prigozhin released his first video statement since June's abortive rebellion, which suggested he was in Africa. The one-day visit appears to have been a further indication that Prigozhin and Wagner were engaged in a sharp pivot away from Ukraine and toward focusing on activities in Africa.
In terms of what might be to come, Leon Panetta, former US defense secretary and ex-CIA director, told CNN it's likely that Russia will try to take over the Wagner mercenary group, following the crash.
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"I would not be surprised if they assert control over the Wagner Group in Africa, Asia, and wherever else they may be located," he said. "For that matter, I think those in the Wagner Group have got to worry about their own lives as well."