25 June 2023 , 05:56
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Despite Yevgeny Prigozhin's decision to call off Wagner Group's march on Moscow to "avoid bloodshed" on Saturday recent events have left President Vladimir Putin "weakened", according to a Russia expert.
A deal was struck to bring an end to the mercenary group's uprising after it had claimed to have seized control of Rostov-on-Don in the south of the country.
Now, Dr Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security Programme at the Chatham House think tank believes the Kremlin agreed to sack defence minister Sergei Shoigu as part of an arrangement.
She said Putin was now "weakened", adding: "No longer can they call [the war in Ukraine] a special military operation and say it is about the protection of Russians in Ukraine.
"Those who understand it differently will have a bit of an opening."
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A Wagner Group military vehicle prepares to return to base after chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called off its march on Moscow (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)In a deal brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner chief Prigozhin will move to Belarus as part of the deal to end his rebellion, which will result in criminal charges against him being dropped, the Kremlin claims.
Troops who supported the 62-year old former friend of Putin in the uprising will avoid any prosecution too, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said. He added that troops who weren't involved will instead be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.
Dr Lewis refutes claims from some quarters the uprising was staged.
"There was always concern this was staged," she said. "Prigozhin has been yelling at (Russian defence minister) Sergei Shoigu for quite a while about not getting enough ammunition.
"Could it be possible that Putin is in on this? I don’t think so. I don’t think he would have gone on national TV and done this.
"I don’t think he would have put himself in that position. I think this is real."
Oleg Ignatov from the International Crisis Group also believes recent events have shown Putin "can lose control" (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)In an interview with the Sunday Mirror, senior Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov from the International Crisis Group - an independent organisation that works to prevent wars - agreed with Dr Lewis' claim.
"This crisis has totally destroyed all the narrative about domestic stability, that Putin controls everything," he said.
"It shows that he can lose control. It shows the limits of his powers.
Mr Ignatov described the Wagner Group rebellion as a "coup d’etat", adding: “You can see that nobody was prepared for it. The security, the presidential administration, the Russian government, they were not prepared for this.
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"Everyone in the Kremlin and security felt that Prigozhin was a Putin guy. He got everything he had because of Putin. He earned his fortune because of Putin. They didn’t do anything to prevent this situation. It’s only now that they can see that Putin didn’t actually control him."