31 March 2023 , 06:30
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Mirror Football's supercomputer has predicted Manchester City will close the gap on league leaders Arsenal - but the Gunners will hold their nerve to claim the title.
With around 10 games left to go as the Premier League resumes following the international break, Arsenal are currently eight points clear of Manchester City, with 69 points from 28 games, while City are on 61 points having played one fewer.
Mikel Arteta’s men have been in fine form this season and have built a solid lead heading into the final furlong of this league campaign, but are by no means out of sight.
City are the only challenger with any realistic chance of preventing a North London title parade in May, but with Pep Guardiola’s side likely to be without star signing and goal machine Erling Haaland for their upcoming clash with Liverpool it’s certainly advantage Arsenal at this stage.
The Gunners have strengthened this season in the shape of former City stars Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko, and with Jesus returning to full fitness, Mirror Football’s supercomputer has calculated that the title will be heading to the capital for the first time since Chelsea lifted the trophy in 2017.
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The Supercomputer, which repeatedly simulated the remaining Premier League fixtures based on this season’s results so far, gave a final league table which saw Arsenal take top spot with an impressive 95 points.
City were of course second, closing the gap to five and finishing on 90, but not taking the title race to the final day. Third place belonged to Manchester United, as Eric Ten Hag’s resurgent Red Devils were predicted to reach 74 points.
The battle for the final Champions League place was predicted to go down to the wire, with Tottenham (69 points) just edging out Liverpool (69), while Newcastle and Brighton finished level on 65 points to claim the final European places.
Mikel Arteta's Arsenal side is closing on a Premier League title (AP)Brentford missed out with 57 points, but still capped a superb season with a top-eight finish, beating Aston Villa (55 ) and Fulham (54 ).
With predictions based on this season’s form alone, it is perhaps not surprising to see Chelsea finishing as low as thirteenth after their woeful campaign. But even the most pessimistic Blues fan will be hoping they manage more than the dreadful 47 points predicted by the simulation.
At the bottom end of the table, things are expected to remain extremely tight, with eight teams predicted to fall short of the magic 40 points expected to guarantee Premier League survival. Leicester City are not one of those, however, as despite sitting in 17th at the moment on 25 points, the simulation predicted the Foxes will rally and reach 42 points for a 14th-placed finish, which is certainly optimistic.
Unsurprisingly, Southampton are set to remain bottom of the table, finishing with an average of 30 points across all simulations. However, the Saints did finish as high as 13th during one simulation, which would be an incredible feat if it were to come true.
Joining them in the Championship next season, according to the supercomputer, are Everton and Nottingham Forest. The Toffees came 19th on 32 points, while Forest finished level with West Ham on 34 points, but the Hammers’ far superior goal difference saw them stay up by the skin of their teeth.
They weren’t the only side to ensure survival by the smallest of margins, as Bournemouth (35), Crystal Palace (36) and Wolves (36) all finished less than one win ahead of Forest, while Leeds United managed 38 points. What this does show is that this year’s relegation battle is one of the closest in history, with every club predicted to survive during some versions of the simulation.
But fans who are unhappy with the supercomputer's forecast for their club can take heart from its preseason predictions. In June, based on results over previous years, it predicted Liverpool would win the League, while league leaders Arsenal only had a 59 percent chance of finishing in the top four.
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Final Table Predictions
(Average points tally across all simulations)
Arsenal - 95
Manchester City - 90
Manchester United - 74
Tottenham Hotspur - 69
Liverpool - 66
Newcastle United - 65
Brighton & Hove Albion - 65
Brentford - 57
Aston Villa - 55
Fulham - 54
Chelsea - 47
Leicester City - 42
Leeds United - 38
Wolverhampton Wanderers - 36
Crystal Palace - 36
Bournemouth - 35
West Ham United - 34
Nottingham Forest - 34
Everton - 32
Southampton - 30