14 September 2026 , 09:20
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The by-election in Sir Keir Starmer’s old seat has been described as Andy Burnham’s "test run" for an early general election.
If the Prime Minister wins the desired amount of support in the Holborn and St Pancras mid-term, where Labour is facing off against Greens leader Zack Polanski, Mr Burnham could bring forward the scheduled date for the 2029 election.
The contest was triggered when Sir Keir announced his resignation at the start of September - despite previously vowing to stay on as an MP following his departure from No10.
Now, Mr Burnham’s advisers have suggested that the upcoming contest, due to take place next month, could be a small-scale test of whether the "King of the North’s" rise to power has truly quashed the threat from the Greens.
"Because Keir’s seat was a target and Polanski is running in it, this gives the PM a perfect opportunity to see if the Green threat has gone with a change of leader," a party insider told The Independent.
“We are seeing people come back [from the Greens] to Labour. Under Keir, there was no doubt that we were losing lots of supporters and party members to the Greens."
They further claimed that a by-election win against Mr Polanski will prove Labour is "in good shape to fight a general election".
During his time as Prime Minister, Sir Keir oversaw the rise of the progressive left, with Labour voters flocking to the Greens across former heartlands - including the previously-safe Gorton and Denton seat.
After Mr Burnham, who resides within party’s soft-left faction, entered Downing Street, strategists are hoping Camden Council leader and refugee Sagal Abdi-Wali could pull back support.
Head of Investigations