23 August 2026 , 09:28
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Andy Burnham has been urged not to call a snap General Election over fears it would cause "carnage" for the Labour Party.
The Prime Minister, who is understood to be flirting with the idea of going to the country early, has been urged by one backbencher to "get on with the job of governing".
His inner circle are thought to be considering bringing a General Election early by two years in order to secure Mr Burnham a mandate from the nation.
The thinking behind the move is to take advantage of the right-wing vote splitting between Reform UK and the Conservatives.
Mr Burnham’s first month in No10 has seen a "bounce" in the polls, which has seen Labour’s popularity increase for the first time since the 2025 General Election.
Labour and Reform are now neck-and-neck, with both parties polling at 26 per cent according to Survation.
Mr Burnham faced a similar moment when serving in Gordon Brown’s Cabinet in 2007, with the ex-Chancellor opting against a snap poll after replacing Sir Tony Blair in No10.
Mr Brown, who held out until 2010, lost out when David Cameron entered a coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats.
The Prime Minister currently has a large majority of 165 MPs, benefitting off the back of Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide victory in 2024.
Mr Burnham could secure a majority of 50 – 350 MPs overall – in a general election if he can get eight per cent ahead in the polls, research by Electoral Calculus has revealed.
He would also need to reach 31.6 per cent of the overall vote share.
Such a scenario would still result in a loss of roughly 90 Labour MPs – with 85 of them only holding their seats since 2024.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s seat would be at significant risk if a snap General Election is called
Jonathan Brash, MP for Hartlepool, who called on Sir Keir to resign on GB News in April, would likely lose his seat to Reform UK.
Justice Minister Jake Richards would likely be another newbie MP expected to lose his seat to Nigel Farage’s party.
However, the picture looks dramatically different if Labour vote share slipped by just 1.5 per cent.
Mr Burnham would be reduced to a majority of two in the Commons.
This would see Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood lose her Birmingham Ladywood seat to Zack Polanski’s Green Party.
One Labour MP at risk of losing their seat in a snap General Election referenced how Theresa May’s decision to go to the country early led to her losing the Tory majority in the Commons.
The at-risk MP told the Mail on Sunday: "’May tried this and look where it got her.
"Don’t get carried away by the opinion polls and the Burnham bounce.
"Presuming that you’re going to win a general election in May is a fool’s game.
"Get on with the job of governing now – don’t plunge us into election uncertainty."
Another MP weighed in, saying it would leave a "bitter taste" in the mouths of so many newer politicians if "carnage" ensued following an early General Election, just so Mr Burnham could have his own mandate.
Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus said the Prime Minister would need to increase Labour’s current polling figures by "six or seven per cent" to secure a comfortable majority.
He said: "Even a win would be painful for dozens of Labour backbenchers who would lose their marginal seats."
Head of Investigations