31 March 2024 , 11:28
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The Best For Britain MRP indicates 14 current ministers and secretaries of state will lose their seats in an unprecedented wave of Portillo moments
Rishi Sunak’s own constituency is at risk in the next election with the Tories set to be reduced to just 98 seats, according to a new mega-poll.
The Survation MRP for Best for Britain indicates 14 current ministers and secretaries of state will lose their seats in an unprecedented wave of Portillo moments.
Their poll of more than 15,000 people puts Labour dramatically in front, winning a mammoth 468 seats - a bigger landslide than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, when Labour secured 418 seats.
The PM’s lead in his Richmond and Northallerton seat is predicted to be less than 2.5% over Labour - within the margin of error in most polls.
And Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s new seat of Godalming and Ash puts him in the lead over the Lib Dems by just 1%.
The Scottish National Party are set to hold on to all but 7 of their current seats - a result that would surprise many predicting a Commons wipeout for the party.
The SNP holding on to 41 seats would mean Labour’s overall majority would be 142 - less than the 179 enjoyed by Tony Blair in 1997.
The Lib Dems would double their seats to 22 if the prediction came to pass, with Plaid Cymru holding on to both of their current seats.
Big beasts like Home Secretary James Cleverly, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt are all predicted to be ousted - as well as chief whip Simon Hart and veterans minister Johnny Mercer.
Newly minted Deputy Chairman Jonathan Gullis is also predicted to lose his Stoke on Trent North seat.
And even more former ministers and well known MPs - including Ian Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Gavin Williamson, Liam Fox, Greg Hands and David Davis are all set for the chop.
Troublingly for Rishi Sunak, while they would win no seats under the prediction, Reform UK are set to claim second place in seven seats for the first time - including two seats in Barnsley, Hartlepool and Easington.
The poll also simulated what could happen if Reform agreed to stand their candidates aside to let Tories win across the country - resulting in a 50% increase in wins for the Conservatives.
But it would only take them to 150 seats - not enough to catch up with Labour.
If the results were repeated on polling day it would give Labour an overall majority of 142.
Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain, said: "With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election."
"But with so much uncertainty, voters will still need the right information to make sure their vote counts come election day and that is why we will be providing up-to-the-minute forecasting at www.getvoting.org."