17 February 2024 , 18:38
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Tory MPs are starting to eye up a May election to “stop the bleeding” and ensure embattled Rishi Sunak can limp as far as the campaign without being ousted, it’s understood.
Conservative HQ has stepped up online attack stunts against Labour, with morale among MPs taking a battering from by-election drubbings and polls suggesting the party will be “obliterated” at the next election. Meanwhile it’s claimed a senior Tory warned the PM in December that a “flurry” of letters of no confidence had been sent in, and urged him to “get out and talk to people” to get jittery MPs back on side.
No10 deny any such call took place, but Mr Sunak did mount a charm offensive with rebellious MPs in the second week of December, as he battled to get his Rwanda plan through. “Senior party figures warned Sunak that letters have gone in, and he needs to work harder at keeping his MPs on side,” a senior Tory source said.
One former minister said he was convinced Mr Sunak would call a May election - and announce it shortly after next month’s Budget. An early poll, they said, would avoid challenges to Mr Sunak's leadership and a drawn out, damaging race to replace him.
And it would show disgruntled Tories Mr Sunak's priority was keeping as many of them as possible in their seats, even if it meant him leaving Downing Street. “A lot of people in the party are starting to think a May election might be necessary,” said a Senior Tory source. “Both to stop the bleeding and keep as many MPs as possible, and to make sure Sunak can actually make jt as far as the campaign.”
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The Tories suffered double by-election drubbing on Thursday. In Wellingborough, Northamptonshire - the seat previously held by ousted MP Peter Bone - Labour demolished an 18,000 Tory majority. And in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, they overturned an 11,000 majority to take Chris Skidmore's former seat.
Mr Sunak's attempts to spin the defeats as normal "mid-term" results for a party of government - despite confirming the election would take place this year - were unconvincing, not least to many of his MPs.
A mega poll published by the Mirror this week suggested the Conservatives face an electoral wipeout - losing three quarters of their seats. The bombshell survey of 18,000 people predicted Mr Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs, which would be the party's worst result in history. Seventeen Cabinet ministers would be ousted with casualties including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordant, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.
Meanwhile Tory HQ sparked fury after posting an edited video on Twitter of London Mayor Sadiq Khan mis-speaking during an interview - making it appear to say Labour was proud to be a party of “anti-Semitism” without correcting himself. It’s the latest in a string of attack stunts against Labour by the Tory press operation - which insiders say is designed to “buoy” flagging MPs, but isn’t likely to cut through to voters.
Last week the party created a website claiming Ed Miliband had not been seen publicly for 140 days - which was untrue. And Treasury officials were ordered by political advisors to release costings documents for opposition policies.
The documents were branded “dodgy dossiers” by Labour, who said they were “nonsense costings” that “fundamentally misunderstand the details of our policy.” And this week, the Tory Twitter account issued a photoshopped image of the “Starmer Sutra”, portraying the Labour leader as a sex expert who can hold “multiple positions at once”.
"I thought it was pathetic" said one senior Tory MP. "The press office is run by kids."
A Tory insider said of the ramp up in attack stunts: “A lot of it is for their own MPs to buoy them up a bit. You wake up every morning and see another poll saying you're going to get obliterated. And they look like they're not doing anything.” The source added: “They're trying to stop 53 letters going in."
To trigger a leadership contest, 15% of the parliamentary party - 53 Tory MPs - need to write to 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady expressing no-confidence in Mr Sunak's leadership. So far just one - Dame Andrea Jenkyns - has publicly confirmed she's written such a letter, but it was claimed in January as many as 29 MPs had written to Sir Graham.
Another former Downing Street insider said he believed No10 were taking cues from Dominic Cummings ' Vote Leave campaign.
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"At this point their best hope is to run the campaign like an insurgency," one former No10 insider told the Mirror. "And that involves doing some things that rub the media up the wrong way."
But another veteran of the Vote Leave campaign denied there were similarities in the strategy, saying the main difference was that "we were good. They’re just talking to themselves.”