15 January 2024 , 08:09
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Rishi Sunak's Tories are facing a 1997-style wipeout at the general election according to a poll giving Labour a landslide 120-seat majority.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people indicates the Conservatives could hold on to as few as 169 seats with Keir Starmer entering Downing Street with 385. It suggests the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and the Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt could be among 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats.
In a massive blow to the PM, the poll also shows the Tories losing every so-called "red wall" that Boris Johnson won from Labour at the 2019 general election. Support for Reform UK would be decisive in 96 Tory losses despite the Nigel Farage-linked party not picking up a single seat, the polling suggests, while the SNP would also suffer.
The research was commissioned by a group of Tory donors working with former Brexit negotiator Lord David Frost, who told The Telegraph the results were "stunningly awful". He said: "It makes clear that the Tory party faces a 1997-style wipeout, if we are lucky. The party will lose nearly 200 seats, the worst loss of seats since Arthur Balfour in 1906."
Rishi Sunak faces losing every 'red wall' seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019 (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)In a brutal verdict, he added: "If we don't act, there will soon only be smoking rubble left."
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The dire findings also come just hours before No10's election chief Isaac Levido briefs Tory MPs at the 1992 Committee on the state of national polling on Monday evening. Responding to the poll, ex-PM Theresa May's former pollster, James Johnson, said the figures suggested the Tories path to victory had "all but vanished".
He said: "Twelve months ago, I wrote that Rishi Sunak had a narrow but viable path to victory. That path has all but vanished — due to half-measures on immigration and the PM’s campaigning style. If he does not change his approach radically, he will be remembered as the PM that took a weakened Conservative Party and let it sink further into the depths of defeat."
Some Tory MPs have already responded with panic to the poll, including ex-Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, who said the result would be a "disaster". He said on social media: "The time for half measures is over. We either deliver on small boats or we will be destroyed."
Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who submitted a letter of no confidence in Mr Sunak to the 1992 Committee last year, said: "Conservative MPs given the latest polling are you now going to wake-up & put your vote of no confidence letters in too? Nothing to lose we have a GE this year anyway. Time to get our party back & be real Conservatives. And save our country from the commies who backed Corbyn!"
Lord Zac Goldsmith, who quit the Government last year, added: "Thank God for those clever-clog 'Tory grandees' who got rid of Boris. Dodged a bullet there didn't they! Genuis." Another Johnson ally and ex-Tory MP Nadine Dorries said: "No10 can’t keep spinning that Sunak is more popular than the party - it’s proven that it’s total b******s it’s him bringing the party down as he has been doing from day 1."
But speaking on Monday, the Defence Secretary Mr Shapps, who could lose his seat, claimed the Tories can "absolutely" turn around their dire electoral prospects at the election later this year. Despite being way behind Labour in the polls, he added: "The reason I think we can turn it around is because at least people know we've got a plan and we're working to it. There isn't a plan under Labour."
Mr Sunak also attempted to play down the results, telling reporters: "There have been lots of polls over the last year, there will be hundreds more polls. The only one that matters is the one when the general election comes. The choice at that election is clear, it's stick with our plan that is working, it's delivering change for people, ensuring they can have the peace of mind that there is a brighter future for their children and we can have renewed pride in our country."
Labour's national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden said: "Labour candidates and members should ignore this poll. Fight like we are behind. Fight like every vote matters. Change will only come for the country if people vote for it, and not a single vote has been cast."
The senior Tories and Cabinet ministers who could lose their seats
- Chancellor Jeremy Hunt
- Defence Secretary Grant Shapps
- Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt
- Education Secretary Gillian Keegan
- Justice Secretary Alex Chalk
- Tory Deputy Chairman Lee Anderson
- Attorney General Victoria Prentis
- Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer
- Scottish Secretary Alister Jack
- Government Chief Whip Simon Hart
- Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer
- Welsh Secretary David TC Davies
- Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith
- Sir John Redwood